BOJ HAD FINALLY INTERVENED... WHAT'S NEXT?

Last Wednesday was a big surprised as I almost closed my long position on USD/JPY after it broke the 83.00 level down to 82.87 before the intervention took place that morning.

It wasn't expected as I thought the BOJ would only intervene at the 80.00 level but as we always seen every now and then, anything can happen in the market.

Though technically there is no reason to go long on this pair, fundamentally anything can change the market direction, either briefly or abruptly that could caught anybody unaware.

At the moment, this position is at 160++ pips in profit and I am still considering whether to hold this position or just take the profit and walk away.

You see, this is where fear vs greed will cloud our decision. This is a life example.

At one point, I did feel like a loser when going long at 84.00... in which I was over 100 pips in red when it went below the 83.00 level. The feeling of losing, fear, almost gave up, escape were all there hunting me to click that "close position" button in order to minimize my potential lost.

But then, when the market pops up over 300 pips after the intervention... My psychological state changed instantly from fear to greed (or smart maybe) in which I am start considering the possibility to swing this position to at least 500 or 1000 pips level in a few weeks or months time.

Which one should I do?

If I were to hold and the market reverse, sure I will regret as not to take it when I had the chance. But then, if I exit now and the market cruise for another few hundred pips, I sure too regret it as well as I could have gained more.

Yes of course it's easy to say not to be emotionally attached with your position but in this situation, when real money is on the line, you got to look carefully from all angles and assess the potential risk accordingly.

The best bet would be to break even by putting my stop at my entry price and let it travel to my target price, if the price is ever to reach there.

In this case, I am seeing the big resistance at 94.97 (multiple fibonacci levels) so putting my profit target at 94.00 (1000 pips from my 84.00 entry price) would be reasonable from a single perspective. But considering Elliot Wave, Moving Average as well as RSI and few other indicators, it may be too much for me to target.

Anyway at this point, I will likely to hold rather than exit. I got to try to win big sometimes with zero risk on the line by breaking even this position. Let's see whether this price will ever break the 90's and climb even further to that 94.00 target level in the next few weeks or months probably.

The time limit? I'd probably give it until end of December if I have too...

Have A Nice Day!

HOW LOW WILL THE USD/JPY GO BEFORE IT CAN REBOUND?

As of this writing, the lowest price for the USD/JPY pair has gone in 15 years is 83.34 (on last 8th September 2010) and the lowest it had been was at 79.75 back in April 1995.

I hate to predict pairs movement but at times good opportunity does not come always. I hardly trade this pair these days but this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to swing this pair for at least 1000 to 2000 pips, who knows?

The problem now however is, is it bottoming already? Will this pair ever break the 80.00 psychological level once again or will that 83.34 be the lowest level for the next 10 or 15 years from now?

Can anyone tell?

Personally, I do believe that the big buyers on this pair are mainly staying at the 80.00 level where this triple zeros will be a very very big support to be broken.

For now, the way I see it is that the pair is waiting for a strong fundamental reason for it to either be further down, or at least make a correction (retracement) to at least to the 90.00 level. The best fundamental move of all if there is ever a serious counter measure or an intervention plan from the Japanese Government particulalrly the BOJ.

Come on BOJ. Do something about it... Yen is too strong for now that would result in expensive imports from Japan and hence less and less people will buy the Japanese product. Perhaps this opinion may sound too naive but that is the core of everything if ever the Japanese Yen maintains its one-sided movement all the way.

I wish I am the Finance Minister of Japan where I could make an announcement that intervention is inevitable in order to protect the Japanese economy. Haha in my dreams for sure...

Anyway...

I am having a long position at 84.00 and still in the doldrums whether to hold or not to hold this position that I entered briefly after the NFP on last Friday.

Judging base on my position, of course I will favor the upward movement. But looking back at the big pictures (ie Weekly and Monthly candlestick), I guess I could be wrong. The pair may have yet to find its bottom yet.

Anyway, I have my stops in place at certain level so most probably I will hold unless the price action and momentum change abruptly hitting certain level that I am comfortable with.

The point now, if you were in my position, do you have the patience to watch and see what will happen next or will you just hold on until you can't take it or when things are back to your favor? Which one is you?

The funny case though, that happens almost every time is that when you escape with minor losses or breakeven, normally the market will be back to your favor if you ever hold that position. But on the other side, as long as you are holding it, you will always feel like you are staying with the losers in which it hardly turn profitable until you start losing your patience and escape.

Is this a coincidence that happen all the time or is it simply psychology that affects you when you have a position in the market?

I still can't find the exact answers but deep inside... I believe I knew the reasons already.

Last but not least... Salam Aidilfitri & Maaf Zahir Batin... Please forgive me for any wrongdoings or saying especially to those who knew me in person...

Take care and drive safely...

IS TRADING JUST LIKE GAMBLING?... By Jeff Wilde

I wish to write on this topic earlier on but wallaaa... one of my best guru online just did (who is clearly more deserved to explain the topic), and I hope he doesn't mind I put a copy of his article here for you to read on as well as for my future referrence...

Read it thoroughly as I am 100% agreed to all the points he has written base on several questions sent to him... To Jeff, please do not charge me with copyright reserved matter as I never mentioned that I am the author to this attached article. ;) In fact, this is an indirect compliment indeed...

For further information, you can visit his website here...

August 29, 2010

Is Trading Just Like Gambling?

Hello Everyone,

This week I'm going to shift gears a bit and answer an email I recieved as I think quite a few have probably thought the same thing at one time or another.

Jeff, I would like to get your honest answer to this question if you don't mind "fielding" it.

1.) Is the outcome of a trade, any trade, ALL TRADES exactly like the outcome for the toss of a pair of dice which is that the toss of the dice is totally without control and, therefore, the outcome is completely random and unpredictable?

2.) If the answer is "yes" meaning that the outcome of a trade is totally random, unpredictable and uncontrollable what could ever "justify" anyone engaging in trading?

3.) I know that you can never take a trade with 100% certainty that the outcome will be a winner, in other words certainty of outcome is impossible because the trader is always dealing with "fluctuating" prices which means that one can never know for sure whether prices will go up or down or remain sideways.

4.) So, since you can never trade with 100% certainty and since you must not "gamble", that is, take trades on the basis of them being completely random and unpredictable then doesn't it stand to reason that trading must be based on the principle of stacking the probabilities or odds in the trader's favor?

5.) Doesn't this mean that successful trading depends upon the traders ability to measure those probabilities accurately?

6.) Then, isn't it true, Jeff, that good trade management and money management are, also, vital to cover those occasions when the trades are losers so as to protect one's capital and be able to stay in "business" long enough to be successful?

7.) So, is it reasonable and rational for a person to engage in trading, Jeff?

Thank you for your views on this. - Jerry

MY COMMENTS… Great question and it is one I could talk for hours on but I will keep it short and sweet.

In the hands of a novice trader, trading is a total crap shoot and no better than going to Las Vegas. Actually in all honesty, its probably way worse than Vegas odds as its not uncommon for new traders to win only 25% - 40% of their trades. This is because the novice doesn't have the knowledge and experience to come up with and implement a strategy that has a statistical edge.

If you think you can just buy a couple of e-books or $97 robots and beat the market then you will be highly disappointed as there is no easy exact formula for trading success.

The bottom-line is your going to have to invest in a bunch of programs and gain an overall education. You're also going to have to spend a lot of time watching the markets unfold real-time as this is the only way you'll learn to read the market and understand how the markets move. Just doing this alone will help start giving you an edge.

The good news is that unlike going to a casino, there are certain chart patterns that happen on a regular basis that occur way beyond a 50/50 chance. The nice thing to is that the computer can help you sift through many of these patterns through back testing.

Sure, back testing is based on historical data and doesn't guarantee future results but… It at least tells you just how far the odds are in your favor.

Another thing to keep in mind is that 90% of traders lose money but 10% make a living off of it and… A certian percent of them make an insane amount of money. If trading was truly like gambling then there would be no 10% making a living.

And perhaps the biggest secret to putting the odds in your favor is to have perfect money management skills and not allow your emotions to derail your progress. Yes I know that you know what I said isn't really much of a secret but odds are for 90% of you reading this, you haven't mastered the last bit fully.

To sum it up…

You can beat the markets but…

If your not willing to put in a lot of time and effort into this then I would say go to Las Vegas. At least you'll get a vacation and some free drinks. :-)


Until next week, peace and prosperity,

Jeff

7 SIMILARITIES BETWEEN FOREX TRADING & THE GAME OF GOLF...

After waiting and planning to start in 6 years, I have finally pickep up golf on last 17th June this year and since then, I discovered a new passion in this game that I almost totally forget about my bowling (but not family and trading of course). The number one reason to learn this game is due to its excitement, future  business requirement as well as indirectly telling my boss and close colleagues that my project is already completed, meaning I have done my job.

By the way, the reason that I do not include a golf article so far in this blog is simply because this game is played by over 60 milions of world population, and there are simply abundant resources on this subject matter on the internet, Astro Golf Channel 815, and especially videos from youtube.com that I personally use to search for better tips from the pros.

But what am i about to share here are the similarities and the goodies that I personally discovered and thought about when I gained more and more experience when playing this game on the course.

As for the game itself, after 2 months playing this game under a local pro coaching sessions, I could say that I could swing the golf clubs pretty well  for now especially for the irons. Have nothing to be proud in terms of distance (yet) but pretty much significant improvement on the swing and direction, though you need both indeed for this game.

In fact, I spent countless hours at the driving range, already entered the green more than 20 times in 8 weeks and participated in a mini company tournament on last 1st August and managed to get 12 points under the Stableford Game using System 36 with 24 handicap for the day. (ie golfers please correct me if there is any incorrect term used here... ;)).

I even got the "chicken" award for being first from behind... Haha, maybe I shouldn't tell this... but why not? At least I have the guts to fight and see where am I standing. For now I am still working hard on developing my swing fundamentals especially for the 1st two shots using Drivers, Woods and Hybrids.

Back to the subject above anyway... after being in the game for the third month now, I start seeing and thinking there are indeed many things that I can learn from golf that could improve my trading and vice versa. Let me share some of the things that I discovered throughout the course vs when I am sitting in front of my trading station.

1. Eagles, Birdies, Pars, Bogeys, Double Bogeys & Triple Bogeys...

You see when you are in the game, these are your targets on each hole, I mean the first three of course. So compared this to trading, it is the same indeed. If you can't make eagle or birdies (which seems impossible for the beginners), you should at least breakeven by making par (even this one is difficult for a novice like me) on each hole. See, when I compare this to my trading, that is why the experts always say that if you can breakeven your account in one year period, you are considered as highly talented trader already because even maintaining a small loss (ie bogeys) is already difficult for a beginner. Most traders lose big time, or double bogey or even double par on certain hole. Agreed golfers?

2. Various hazards - Bunker, Water, Out of Bound, Rough etc.

Just like golf, there are plenty of hazards in forex as well that includes of news, intervention talk, geopolitical sentiments, nasty brokers and many more. You got to know all these potential hazards upfront and decide on the game plan and risk management whether to go through with a big hit, wait, or stay out for certain time. If you know that you just couldn't get through certain type of hazards, perhaps the best way is to either play safe or stay out at least for a while as most of the time, the gamble is not worth it. It's all abut proper risk management somehow. Know your hazards and play it accordingly to plan.

3. Flight Members equal to your Trading Colleagues

I am not sure about others but I am affected with whom am I playng with. Perhaps people always say that this game is very individual hence there should be no effect. But come on, base on my bowling experiences, I did see pro's that suffered when they have to play their games together with beginners (during open games), one way or another no matter how strong their mental was. The point in trading here though, is that when you are trading together with your selected partners, make sure that he or she is someone that you are really comfortable with especially when changing or sharing views on the market movement. If you are partnering with someone that you hardly knew their skill levels, chances are you may start doing more ridiculous analysis base on these novices point of view which are mainly baseless. So be careful when chosing your flight members. Always play with either those who are at the same or higher level (if you can get one) than you and try to play better each time.

4. Driver, Fairway Woods, Hybrids, Irons, Wedges and Putter.

No doubt these are type of instruments that you have to have in order to play and atack the green appropriately. Compared these to trading, I am definitely referring to your trading station or facilities. The better it is the higher your chances to score provided that you knew how to utilise each of these intruments wisely. You see, for example if we talk about trading with a single notebook is just like playing golf with a single club in your bag, say Iron 7. Sure you can still play from the tee-off down to the putting green, but how efficient are you compared to those who have 14 good clubs in their bag playing at the same or higher level than you? Just think about it. So if you asked me whether we have to somehow invest a bit in setting up a good trading station... the answer will definitely be YES. Though there is no guarantee, but definitely you'd have better chances to make the cut.

5. Golf Courses = Currency Pairs

Undeniably different golf courses offer you wiith different setup and challenges. Some are more intriguing than the others in terms of challenges though the basic principle will still remain the same. Compared this to currency pairs, you just have to understand that different pairs do behave differently though the basic principle is similar from one pair to another. In order to trade certain pairs, you must at least undestand the underlying factors that trigger the movement of your selected pair. For instance, EUR/USD can be among the easiest pair to trade with low spread and high liquidity, but still you need to check, study and understand the pair accordingly prior to making any decision whether to go long or short. Just like when playing golf, there are courses that appear to be easy due to its layout and your experience, but still you can still end up in the bunker or waters just because you are not careful enough (or making silliy mistakes) with your shot.

6. Pro vs Amateurs vs Beginners

You see the level of skills and experience that you have will really differentiate your level of play. For a par 4 hole, normally a pro will hit the green (in regulation) in just 2 shots compared to amateurs and beginners where even 3 to 4 shots may seem to be very difficult. This is particularly comparable to your strength in trading where a well funded account that is run by an experience trader is very much advantegous to a a low funded account handled by an inexpereienced trader. A clear handicap is needed or otherwise you will sure not survive in the game play. Even with a maximum handicap, still the pros will normally (if not surely) make the final cut.

7. Psychology in Golf vs Psychology in Trading

Let's face it, in anything that you do, it does require certain level of mental strength and stability. If your mental is out for the day, say tired, lack of focus or worry about something else, chances you will fumble both in playing golf or trading. In order to build the mental or psychology strength in both of these, you should at least learn, understand as well as experiencing it yourself in order to improve your performance for your next game or trade. Hence, by playing golf, it can and it will build up your mental strength that will give you equal benefit to your trading career.

So, what are you waiting for? Go out and get a golf set now. At least you can trade the market during the weekdays and spend your Saturdays at the greens, since Sunday should be reserved for the family.

Have A Nice Day!

THE TRUTH ABOUT ECONOMIC NEWS VS MARKET REACTION...

I somehow hate but love economic news as they are the one that moves the market either way, especially after a period of boring and quiet moment when hardly any trader can be seen in the market base on the low volume.

But when big news comes up, sometimes when you expect big moves upon certain "red" news, it seldom happen, but on other time when you are cruising a profitable trend, all of sudden either a simple news, rumour or an unexpected breaking news arise, the market broke out and made a sudden 360 degrees turn around.

What is the real mystery behind all these? Perhaps this element of the market is something that especially a new trader may wonder how to solve. The question is... can it be solved or predicted all the time? I don't think so...

In my honest view, these are all reasons and factors that create the 'fear vs greed' element in the market. When good news or datas are published for the US, the dollar is not necessarily going up and vice versa for other currencies.

It all depends on how the buyers or sellers would respond to these news and you know what... majority wins. This is the real answer to the mystery... nothing complicated or special at all.

Just don't count on the forex analysis report after the market reacted as these reports can be be really deceiving as they (ie I meant the market analysts) always, I mean always, report something that had happened. In those reports, most of the elements written are simply reasons from their own perspective rather than the real truth on what is going on. Remember, they always have reasons to justify whatever they wrote in there.

You can read these reports of course, just like me... but do not trust these reports 100% as they only serve as reasons on why it happened rather than what really happened.

On another perspective, the technicians on the market do somehow rely so much on their technical analysis and hence barely care these sudden jerks occurence after each news. Though technically it is much easier to predict and see the market movement, somehow fundamentals or the sentiments could not be ignored and something that a trader worth to understand and emphatize as well.

The key word here is balance... a balance approach in your trading, both that includes fundamental as well as technical. Too much on either side is bad for you. Just like driving, though you knew your car has a reliable ABS and EBD braking system that could stop you within 15 meters during a 140 km/h driving speed, you still prefer not to brake at such situation as there are risks that your brakes may not function accordingly to specification due to other factors. Get the point? Stay balance by using your own wisodm & jurisdiction...

So anyway, back to the topic above... you may wonder what is the truth behind all these?

The truth is... anything can happen. Just remember indeed that anything can happen. That is my point actually.

Using technical approach especially on Fibonacci Levels, previous low and high, RSI, Stochastic as well as double or triple zero's resistance or support is very much easier rather than trying to predict how the market will react upon certain news each time.

There are 2 main problems when you are purely a news trader.

One... you do not know what is the upcoming news or data...
Two... you definitely don't know how the market will react...

So to open a position prior to these news, or simply react upon on the market response after the news release is pretty much riskier compared to trading the market during news-free period. I have done and tried so many kind of system and strategy but at the end of the day... trust me... it's all about...

...PRUDENT RISK MANAGEMENT...

You will get it right at times, and wrong on some other times... In any kind of trade, there is no way you can get it correct 100% of the time. If you don't trust me on this, ask George Soros or Warren Buffet as I am nobody compared to these guys.

The psychology of trading, the decision making, the rationality behind each trade that you open... must be well understood and justified from at least, your own point of view. Since the money in your trading account is purely your money, don't rely on others advice or tips 100% as the fact that I mentioned above still applies... no one knows what can and will happen in the market...

Take your risk accordingly... Though the trend is your friend, but the market is not... They want your money and if you're not careful... on being either too fear or too greed... you will definitely lose in the long run...

My advice is simple... Be smart but don't be too smart... at times, just follow what the market is doing accordingly and take your share reasonably base on your target (that is not too ambitious or big...). Keep it as simple as possible and throw away your ego when you trade... meaning when you're wrong, just get out and come back later.

If you can do this... I can guarantee that you will survive and prosper in your trading career for years to come...

Last but not least... no matter what, the market is your boss... he is always right... ;)

Keep this in mind all the time...

Have A Nice Day....

THE WAY WE HANDLE CONFLICTS...

Recently I had a few incidents (or perhaps arguments) where conflicts were inevitable. Matters are mainly personal that were not being addressed all these while but being held like a time-bomb that was waiting to explode, in which recently it did.

You see the point that I am trying to highlight here is, some of us, if not most, likes to sweep the problems under the carpet rather than take it face to face, especially Malays where "jaga hati" is more important than others.

For sure, no one likes the feeling of conflicts, the heat as well as the prolong argument that will not make us comfortable. But, as long as we are hiding the problems rather than working to resolve it, sooner or later things will appear on the surface. Just like one proverb that I could recall that says - "anything that can happen will happen".... whether you like it or not.

But the key to problem solving is of course, a rational and open mind from all parties involved in which this is  the hardest part especially when emotion had crept into taking over the brain control system. No matter how hard we try, the problem still facing a dead-end.

Family, works and friends. To me, all have its own vital connection and there is no way we can live with one of these missing. But to sustain its balance is something that one cannot take for granted. When you tend to focus too much on one area, definitely you will start losing the other two.

Hence, with regard to the topic that I put above, the way we handle conflicts is very subjective and do differ from one person to another. Some tend to simplify a complicated matter where others tend to over-complicate a simple matter. It all depends on personality, at least from my point of view.

To me, I always look at conflicts as an opportunity to learn or something that can turn me into a better person, or perhaps helping the other parties to become a better person him/herself, provided he/she chose to change. I am a positive person, so regardless of what happened, there is always something for me to learn upon.

It's definitely not easy to handle a conflict, but the ability to come out from it with sound resolution, maturity and wiser mentality is something that will turn you into a better human each time after you faced a particular conflict in your life.

Have A Nice Day...

MONEY & SENSE OF HUMANITY...

We all work hard for the money just to fulfil our needs as well as our dreams. The problem is, most of the time we work so hard for the money that most of us tend to forget or ignore the real important matters in our life, which to me, are health & happiness coz one will always relate to each other.

Yes, you may get that 5 figure or even 6 figure income that you've been dreaming of. But the question is, are you in good health condition and does that five figure income brings you the goodness of life that you've been searching for?

Money will certainly brings you a lot of excitement, especially in terms of shopping power. Though not everything, but you can buy almost anything with money, even humans to certain extent.

But wrongly spent, money can and surely destine you to a dungeon of destruction as well. You may lose your old time friends, you may create a lot of hidden enemies, or you may even get infected with HIV if you are a womanizer, just to name a few. Even most crimes are committed due to money orientation, no others.

So, the thing that I am trying to point out here is simple.

Regardless of how much or how less money that you have in your account, do not lose your sense of humanity, particularly your sense of humor.

We all need money for sure, but money is not everything because the fact is, you can't buy everything with money, especially health and happiness. These two come from a different aspect of life in which it is much related on how well you groom your relationship wih others and giving good personal care on your own well being, where knowledge, patience and discipline play a more important role.

It's easy to say though, because it is not easy to control oneself once you are already sleeping on a "moneybed".

To most of us, we'd always say I knew how to control myself once I got there (ie when I have lots of money), but the reality is always otherwise, especially without proper planning and control.

I personally have seen a number of people that turn out even worse when they have lots of money rather when they're not.

If you don't plan on how you're going to behave when you reach that destiny (yes.. this one needs planning as well...), chances are you will not behave and start having all sort of problems that relate to money.

As for me, I don't have a lot... yet... ;) But I will...

100 PIPS IS NOTHING with GBP/JPY...

I entered long for the GBP/JPY tonight @ 9.15pm local time (9.15am US Time) at 135.12 looking at the daily candlesticks, 4 hours, 1 hour as well as 15 Minutes. Everything was right for me to go long on this pair base on the technical setup.

You knew what happened?

In less than 1 hour, my 100 pips stop loss was hit just like that. I mean JUST LIKE THAT.

Come on, give me some mercy Mr Market. You were so cruel... I didn't trade for the whole day and I thought this could be the perfect one for me to hold on at least until tomorrow morning.

But no way guys... the market never listen and this has always been the case. I was spit, bitten and killed without any mercy.

This is a perfect example on how cruel the market could be. I see no reason for me to go short but then all of sudden, going short was the perfect choice indeed, or perhaps staying out was even better. But how can anyone tell?

Yes it is true that trading is no easy. In the long run, it's all about having a good risk management that will determine whether you will prosper, survive or otherwise.

Just like playing golf, I believe if you could play the game with a breakeven score (ie. 0) is better rather than losing it on double or triple bogey on each hole. But this one is really a BIG HOLE to lose with just one trade being hit at -100 pips in less than an hour... phhewww...

Well this is not the first time though... The fastest one was in 5 minutes 2 years ago (with GBP/USD pair) when I lost 100 pips as well on a single trade... no news no nothing but then all of sudden the market turned the other way which was highly deceiving... without patience, I believed I would have broken my LCD display already... ;)

Remember guys... the market has NO MERCY on your account...

That's all that I want to share...

SECRETS OF READING THE FOREX MARKET CORRECTLY...

Let's talk about fundamental this time. The market is made up of humans, regardless whether they are trading personally, institution or for the banking sectors, they are all HUMAN.

The fact that most of us tend to overlook is that those candlesticks on our trading station (eg MT4) are simply indicators of what the market participants are currently doing at that moment. These candlesticks are simply behavior indicators. It doesn't really tell you whether to buy, hold or sell coz it takes more than that for you to decide before you should attempt to make any kind of trade entry.

The real indicator of all is the PRICE itself, no others.

The simple fact is that most (new) traders do not know or tend to ignore the reality behind on what really drives these prices to move up and down, fluctuating every now and then without stops...

Instead, most new traders tend to look at the signals as purely signals that are driven electronically like a gambling machine. This is not the way to trade.

The real driver to these prices fluctuation is simply due to the fact that traders BUY and traders SELL. More buyers (BULLS) will push the price UP and more sellers (BEARS) will pull the prices DOWN.

So when you are seeing a sudden spike in prices (say up), it doesn't happen by itself (except for some nasty brokers that are hunting stops). It happened due to the fact that at that particular moment (say after news release) buy orders are exceeding sell orders significantly by (say) a billion dollars or more...

In simple term, when I see such thing... I just say to myself... Oh sh*t, the buyers are in control... (if I were selling) or Yes, I'm on the right side with the bulls (if I were buying)... and so on.

Let's look at one example.

I was going long on Eur/Usd last Thursday (adding to a losing position at 1.2314, aha pls don't laugh...) thinking that the Euro had been severely OVERSOLD and that 1.2000 level could be a strong support for the pair. Though it was widely expected that NFP that Fiday night would produce good figures, base on the price action I was made to believe that the market may predominantly think that Euro has reached its bottom and risk appetite may return accordingly taking chances on the 4 year low price of the pair.

But what happened that night was totally against my position. I was wrong and purely outclassed by the bears on this pair, and my stops at 1.1980 was mercilessly taken out.

After re-analysing the situation, I must admit that I was wrong (again) with my analysis in the first place. I was so much focusing on the technical part of this pair that I missed out on the fundamental.

One simple fundamental fact that I overlooked last week was that the Iranian Government was selling 15B Euro and will add further to a total value of 45B by September this year, decreasing their national reserve in Euro to 20% - 25% only.

Man, this really creates FEAR and if I were to have assets in Euro (say 1B Euro), I would sell them as well knowing on what the Iranian is doing, collectively with other tycoons that may just be doing the same thing.

That indeed was the main factor that drove the Euro lower to even beyond the 1.2000 level.

So the point that I am sharing here is, analyse both sides of the equation before jumping into any decision. Though the fact is no one can really tell on what will happen, but a good analysis will at least increase your chances of taking the correct decision with your trades.

To me, it's all about FEAR and GREED. These two can never be eliminated from human's psychology. For now, it seems that everyone is hating the Euro for sure, in which no serious buyers are seen on site at all.

So the real secrets of reading the market correctly is to have and know as much information as possible before you begin your market analysis. Both fundamental and technical are equally important as I do not believe in acting impulsively base on what currently is happening in the market.

Always look at the bigger picture and be responsible with your decision. Trust me, you will feel more accomplish as a trader if you manage to do this habitually.

To tell you the truth, I am already tired with super system that promise nothing but promises only.

Just remember that TRADING IS NOT EASY and if you were to play around with your money in this market, just forget about it. You can never make it and that is a fact.

I've burned thousands of dollar to find the perfect system that would allow me to trade with no brainer, but I failed. Such thing does not exist.

But when I sit back, looking back at the market with open mind, have the courage to really learn and understand what this market is all about, then only I am still here believing that I can and will prosper with this trading one day, provided I apply all the right things that I have experienced and learned so far.

So guys, bear in mind that it takes more than a good system for you to success. In my own definition, you require at least the followings:

1. Knowledge (ie this is key to everything, not money)
2. Experience (ie feel the sense of losing and the cruelty of the market)
3. Tools (ie proper Trading Station for you to monitor the market)
4. System (ie Rules to apply to initiate your entry and exit)
5. Capital & Risk Management Skills (ie margin for mistakes)
6. Time (ie when and how to trade, what hours in a day or week)
7. Patience & Discipline

All these 7's are equally interrelated, vital and it is for you to master.

By the way, anyone could tell where the Euro is heading this week? I am calling for a minor correction... but of course, I could be wrong if the bears are still strong... pretty extreme this time... ;)

Have A Nice Day...

POWERFUL FOREX SYSTEM MYTH BUSTER...

Is there a system that can really beat the market every now and then without fail?

I would say NO. A BIG NO indeed.

My personal tip is very simple. No matter who or where you get that email from, do not trust them blindly especially those putting some serious sense of urgency for you to watch their free videos and proofs on how they are making money from it. (and definitely ask you to buy afterwards).

These are all marketing gimmicks, in which I do not really blame them for doing such thing. If the system is so good in making money, I tell you it won't take much explanation for these sellers to sell since the system can speak by itself. Would you really sell something to the public that can generate you tonnes of money day in aand day out... ?

Oh yeah maybe, coz you make too much money already with this system that you don't need it anymore. Then why the hell you are selling it in the first place? Why can't you just share it for free?

Yeah I knew that people may not appreciate free items. But, the point that I am sharing here is do not fall prey to such gimmick where you have to fork out your hard earned cash to have this unproven system and later hoping that you can win trades effortlessly without any thinking.

That will never happen.

The reason I am writing this is just to share what I knew with you who may have just started or still in the searching mode for the perfect system.

Trust me, there is no such thing. And why am I saying this is because I keep on receiving emails from some friends asking what is the system that I am using now. They thought I am either already doom with my forex OR already making tonnes of money by keeping quite from writing any article in this blog.

The main reason for less writings these days are mainly due to I am particularly occupied with my day job and some other ongoing projects that have good prospects. That is why I couldn't write much.

But yes, I am still trading with the same system that I mentioned before BUT with significant improvement in terms of patience, discipline and risk management which are VERY HARD to master. All these are about myself that has nothing to do with the market.

Guys, there are for sure systems that can consistently bring you winning trades, but most importantly, it is the Decision Making System that really proofs to be profitable in the long run, especially if we talk about survivability and prosperity.

Know yourself, learn to control, have patience, have a system and have a discipline to follow the system.

That is indeed the best system of all...