HOW LOW WILL THE USD/JPY GO BEFORE IT CAN REBOUND?

As of this writing, the lowest price for the USD/JPY pair has gone in 15 years is 83.34 (on last 8th September 2010) and the lowest it had been was at 79.75 back in April 1995.

I hate to predict pairs movement but at times good opportunity does not come always. I hardly trade this pair these days but this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to swing this pair for at least 1000 to 2000 pips, who knows?

The problem now however is, is it bottoming already? Will this pair ever break the 80.00 psychological level once again or will that 83.34 be the lowest level for the next 10 or 15 years from now?

Can anyone tell?

Personally, I do believe that the big buyers on this pair are mainly staying at the 80.00 level where this triple zeros will be a very very big support to be broken.

For now, the way I see it is that the pair is waiting for a strong fundamental reason for it to either be further down, or at least make a correction (retracement) to at least to the 90.00 level. The best fundamental move of all if there is ever a serious counter measure or an intervention plan from the Japanese Government particulalrly the BOJ.

Come on BOJ. Do something about it... Yen is too strong for now that would result in expensive imports from Japan and hence less and less people will buy the Japanese product. Perhaps this opinion may sound too naive but that is the core of everything if ever the Japanese Yen maintains its one-sided movement all the way.

I wish I am the Finance Minister of Japan where I could make an announcement that intervention is inevitable in order to protect the Japanese economy. Haha in my dreams for sure...

Anyway...

I am having a long position at 84.00 and still in the doldrums whether to hold or not to hold this position that I entered briefly after the NFP on last Friday.

Judging base on my position, of course I will favor the upward movement. But looking back at the big pictures (ie Weekly and Monthly candlestick), I guess I could be wrong. The pair may have yet to find its bottom yet.

Anyway, I have my stops in place at certain level so most probably I will hold unless the price action and momentum change abruptly hitting certain level that I am comfortable with.

The point now, if you were in my position, do you have the patience to watch and see what will happen next or will you just hold on until you can't take it or when things are back to your favor? Which one is you?

The funny case though, that happens almost every time is that when you escape with minor losses or breakeven, normally the market will be back to your favor if you ever hold that position. But on the other side, as long as you are holding it, you will always feel like you are staying with the losers in which it hardly turn profitable until you start losing your patience and escape.

Is this a coincidence that happen all the time or is it simply psychology that affects you when you have a position in the market?

I still can't find the exact answers but deep inside... I believe I knew the reasons already.

Last but not least... Salam Aidilfitri & Maaf Zahir Batin... Please forgive me for any wrongdoings or saying especially to those who knew me in person...

Take care and drive safely...