IS TRADING JUST LIKE GAMBLING?... By Jeff Wilde

I wish to write on this topic earlier on but wallaaa... one of my best guru online just did (who is clearly more deserved to explain the topic), and I hope he doesn't mind I put a copy of his article here for you to read on as well as for my future referrence...

Read it thoroughly as I am 100% agreed to all the points he has written base on several questions sent to him... To Jeff, please do not charge me with copyright reserved matter as I never mentioned that I am the author to this attached article. ;) In fact, this is an indirect compliment indeed...

For further information, you can visit his website here...

August 29, 2010

Is Trading Just Like Gambling?

Hello Everyone,

This week I'm going to shift gears a bit and answer an email I recieved as I think quite a few have probably thought the same thing at one time or another.

Jeff, I would like to get your honest answer to this question if you don't mind "fielding" it.

1.) Is the outcome of a trade, any trade, ALL TRADES exactly like the outcome for the toss of a pair of dice which is that the toss of the dice is totally without control and, therefore, the outcome is completely random and unpredictable?

2.) If the answer is "yes" meaning that the outcome of a trade is totally random, unpredictable and uncontrollable what could ever "justify" anyone engaging in trading?

3.) I know that you can never take a trade with 100% certainty that the outcome will be a winner, in other words certainty of outcome is impossible because the trader is always dealing with "fluctuating" prices which means that one can never know for sure whether prices will go up or down or remain sideways.

4.) So, since you can never trade with 100% certainty and since you must not "gamble", that is, take trades on the basis of them being completely random and unpredictable then doesn't it stand to reason that trading must be based on the principle of stacking the probabilities or odds in the trader's favor?

5.) Doesn't this mean that successful trading depends upon the traders ability to measure those probabilities accurately?

6.) Then, isn't it true, Jeff, that good trade management and money management are, also, vital to cover those occasions when the trades are losers so as to protect one's capital and be able to stay in "business" long enough to be successful?

7.) So, is it reasonable and rational for a person to engage in trading, Jeff?

Thank you for your views on this. - Jerry

MY COMMENTS… Great question and it is one I could talk for hours on but I will keep it short and sweet.

In the hands of a novice trader, trading is a total crap shoot and no better than going to Las Vegas. Actually in all honesty, its probably way worse than Vegas odds as its not uncommon for new traders to win only 25% - 40% of their trades. This is because the novice doesn't have the knowledge and experience to come up with and implement a strategy that has a statistical edge.

If you think you can just buy a couple of e-books or $97 robots and beat the market then you will be highly disappointed as there is no easy exact formula for trading success.

The bottom-line is your going to have to invest in a bunch of programs and gain an overall education. You're also going to have to spend a lot of time watching the markets unfold real-time as this is the only way you'll learn to read the market and understand how the markets move. Just doing this alone will help start giving you an edge.

The good news is that unlike going to a casino, there are certain chart patterns that happen on a regular basis that occur way beyond a 50/50 chance. The nice thing to is that the computer can help you sift through many of these patterns through back testing.

Sure, back testing is based on historical data and doesn't guarantee future results but… It at least tells you just how far the odds are in your favor.

Another thing to keep in mind is that 90% of traders lose money but 10% make a living off of it and… A certian percent of them make an insane amount of money. If trading was truly like gambling then there would be no 10% making a living.

And perhaps the biggest secret to putting the odds in your favor is to have perfect money management skills and not allow your emotions to derail your progress. Yes I know that you know what I said isn't really much of a secret but odds are for 90% of you reading this, you haven't mastered the last bit fully.

To sum it up…

You can beat the markets but…

If your not willing to put in a lot of time and effort into this then I would say go to Las Vegas. At least you'll get a vacation and some free drinks. :-)


Until next week, peace and prosperity,

Jeff