I was partly using the FXCM Dailyfx Plus service (since I am an account holder) and to be honest, their trading strategy is pretty good and accurate, but of course it is never 100%.
Last Tuesday (5th May), I followed one of their trading strategy after some careful analysis of my own on the EUR/USD pair. And guess what, it was a bad entry. From bull it changed to sideways and I was down to -108 pips before the market came back to my entry level at 1.3354 after 43 hours waiting.
It did come back twice before that but I wasn't there to close the position since I still stick to my original TP at 1.3554. Even my original SL plan at -50 was changed to -150 or otherwise I would have hit my SL already.
Later when the market return to my point of entry, I was kind of nervous if it ever goes down again, so I closed the position at 1.3568 after the ECB interest rate decision (cut to 1.00%), taking in merely 14 pips in profit. Considering the -108 pips that was encountered before, I guess saving the position in profit is already a bonus.
Later, I thought it was a good decision since out of nowhere, the market suddenly dipped back to 1.3261 (from 1.3361 - that's 100 pips bro) within 5 minutes at exactly 8.35pm local time here. Phew... I was lucky then... but then, from that 1.3261, it shoot up over 200 pips to 1.3464 within the next 1 hour, around 110 pips over my original point of entry.
All of sudden, sense of greed came in and I felt that it was not really a good decision (to pull out) since if I stick with it a little bit longer, I would have banked in 100 pips instead of 14 pips. Yeah of course I could say that since the market spike back to bullish trend.
Anyway, no position was open later on since I have no confidence looking at the market condition. Even the Dailyfx Plus does not suggest any trade for the day, so I waited till Friday until NFP released at 8.30 pm.
When NFP kicked in, I applied my normal NEWS trading technique (as per Avis Frister method) on GU and EU pair and managed to bank in 56 pips from ultra-short term scalping, mainly from long position. Not bad and I went out for dinner.
Later when I returned, right after London session closed, I saw that EU pair is approaching a major resistance line @ 1.3590 (provided by Jeff Wilde). Instead of going long as per few strategies proposed by Dailyfx Plus service, I decided to create a sell pending order at 1.3578 (12 pips lower) and set my profit limit at 1.3528 (+50 pips) and SL at 1.3628 (-50 pips).
I didn't wait for this entry to happen so I just went to sleep, with some confidence and hope that the trade would kick in and hit my TP when profit taking activities dominate prior to New York closed this Saturday morning.
As the morning comes and the yawning done, I quickly rushed to my pc and guess what. The trade did kick in but instead of hitting my TP, it hit my SL at 1.3628. The EU went as high as 1.3632 before closing the day.
Instead of gaining 50 pips, I only gained 6 pips for the day, offsetting my earlier gain of 56 pips during the NFP. Oh no, not again... But then, what can I do. I couldn't resist not taking that trade, though I knew the consequences if I'm wrong like this.
I just ask myself, how was I suppose to know? When I blindly follow the trend, the market did reverse. When I did not follow, the market continues. Am I f*****g st***d or what? Will this take forever before I can really master the market?
To take things easy, perhaps the best thing was just go to sleep rather than creating that bad pending order. Mmmm... still in the novice level I suppose. Best of all, sticking to my original trade opened on Tuesday would the greatest option since not only it hit my original TP at 1.3554, it even goes higher.
I guess I am just a normal human who doesn't know what's really happening next... sometimes I'm right, sometimes I'm wrong, just like anyone else.
Well, looking at the positive side, we still have next week, don't we?
Have A Nice Weekend Guys... ;)
p/s: I wrote this right after I woke up on Saturday morning, so that I will not forget...
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