Tuesday, September 29, 2009
CATCH THE PIPS... & THE DOLLARS WILL FOLLOW...
A TRADING PLAN...
Not a surprise answer I suppose, but then this is the one that most novice traders tend to neglect, including myself.
I don't want to rewrite everything on what has been discussed in the book, but the key points are:
1. You must know why you are trading
2. What is your daily, weekly and monthly target, inclusive short terms and long terms goals as a trader
3. How do you plan to achieve that exactly?
In short, it is also about patience and discipline.
PATIENCE - to carefully analyze the market & wait for the right signal to enter
DISCIPLINE - in following your own pre-define system and schedule
One more thing, majority of new traders are so much focusing on dollar gains instead of sharpening their skills in getting the pips out from the market.
When dollar gain is in focus, risk management will go haywire. Why?
Say for example you are aiming to gain USD200 per day. There are for sure many ways for you to get this but of course, this is very much depending on your available margin as well.
20 std lots = USD200 per pip = You need 1 pip only
2 std lots = USD20 per pip = You need 10 pips only
2 mini lots = USD2 per pip = You need 100 pips
2 micro lots = USD0.20 per pips = You need 1000 pips... pheewww...
These are just examples.
But you can see that if you're so much focus on the dollar instead of pips, you would enter the market blindly without knowing what sort of risk that you are facing.
Yes it feels great when you have a 2 standard lot position that goes with you instead of a 2 mini lots position. Say you are 10 pips in gain, you are 200 dollar ups instead of 20 dollars.
BUT...
Imagine the reverse side. Can you stand the pain if it happens?
20 pips down with a 2 mini lot position would only cost you 40 dollars instead of 400 dollars with a 2 standard lots size.
So, in summary... instead of focusing on the dollar gains (sure thing it's all about dollar gain), focus on scoring the pips so that you would enhance your trading skills from day to day... The dollar gains and risked during any single trade are simply multipliers and should be taken care under your money management calculation... the best risk at all time is 1%...
Have A Nice Trading Week...
Wednesday, September 23, 2009
TRADING DEMON VS TRADING ANGEL...
Trading Angel Says... Wait, analyse first... look at the daily range and analysis before start trading
Trading Demon Says... Just put in big lots... Big lots = Big Money... You'll get rich quicker
Trading Angel Says... Stay cool... play small... small risk = small lost if you're wrong
Trading Demon Says... Just trade when the market opens, don't look at the watch
Trading Angel Says... Wait for London session or after major news release when liquidity is high
Trading Demon Says... The hell with the trend, just go in against them, everyone else is wrong
Trading Angel Says... Go with the trend but wait for the good entry
Trading Demon Says... Go adjust the Stop Loss, the market will reverse and be back in your favor
Trading Angel Says... Stick to your plan and system, maintain discipline
Trading Demon Says... Just get in base on your feeling and your judgment
Trading Angel Says... Wait for the right signal... Wait, wait and wait...
Trading Demon Says... Stay greed, don't take the profit yet, it will break the resistance
Trading Angel Says... Get out now, that's a big resistance & come back later
Trading Demon Says... This is the top/bottom... take it and swing it...
Trading Angel Says... How do you know? Wait for a clearer signal...
Trading Demon Says... Trade any time you like, even during office hours
Trading Angel Says... Stick to your schedule bro, it's not the right thing to trade during office hours
Trading Demon Says... Patience & Discipline are bullshit, just get in... more trade means more money
Trading Angel Says... Patience & Discipline are everything, less trade = less mistake means you'll keep your money longer
Monday, September 21, 2009
MAHATHIR...
Last but not least, I leave you with a quote that I wrote clearly on the wall but could not really recall who quoted it...
Friday, September 18, 2009
FORGIVE AND FORGET...
So, regardless of how bad it may seem to you or certain people's perception, the best thing to do on my personal basis is just to forgive and forget. Hopefully it won't happen again.
The key here is - no one's perfect. And if we intend to resolve any unwanted situation, first you must be honest with your statement by not trying to undermine someone's pride and credibility. Writing such thing on the shoutit box in the first place is a clear sign that the informer herself is a thoughtless s.o.b...
Yeah it could be true or worse than I know but I am not some-kind of jackass who would blindly believe what I heard or read ok.
On the opposite perspective, anyone could throw such a statement without us knowing what's the intend behind. So, just think about it...
Anyone could lie to anyone else, but surely we can't lie to ourselves and our own Creator... coz how far do you think can anyone go by lying? Sooner or later the truth will prevail. Ok? Simple and easy... no migraines involved.
Maafkan jika ada tersilap atau terkasar bahasa ye...
Tuesday, September 15, 2009
10 SYSTEMATIC WAYs TO TRADE THE FX MARKET BY SCALPING...
Monday, September 14, 2009
DISCIPLINE IN PLAYING BLACK JACK?...
I just watched (for the 4th time) the movie titled 21 last weekend on HBO, inspired by a true story.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZRzZX2aN3I0
The story is about the most gifted student in MIT who is very good in numbers, who later joined a team lead by their professor, gambling in Vegas on weekend specifically on the Black Jack (21) card game...
So what's the catch here? One thing I love about this movie is because the sense of discipline that the professor (Kevin Spacey) imposed on his students when they are out for business in Vegas...
His tagline is always - "Remember, we do not gamble, we count cards..."
Statistically speaking, the black jack game is beatable. It is a game of probability, just like trading which is far more easier than this Black Jack...
Looking at the complexity of probabilities that they have to go through in order to beat this game, I can't stop thinking then why do us traders couldn't figure out the probability in trading? Isn't trading is much simpler?
Later after looking back at the movies... I discovered some answers...
The main answer is due to emotions... fear vs greed...
For instance, when you start letting your emotions overtaking your decision rather than pure rationale, statistic and signals, you are making judgment base on what you feel rather than what you see. Just like when Ben went too far and thought he could beat it all and let his emotion took control, when the sense of greed is conquering his mind, he purely forget about the fear factor until later when he was caught by the Loss Controller (Laurence Fishburne) of the Casino.
Bang! By that time... it's already too late to pull out...
If only they stick to their TECHNICAL plan of their operation without greed and emotions, they would have stay unnoticed under the radar for a very long time... reaping all the potential profits along the way...
So, in summary, I believe the best lesson we traders could learn from this movie is to appreciate the importance of operating in a discipline & mechanical manner rather than emotional manners.
As human though, I must say that this is rather easy said than done... you knew it's wrong but you still do it... and that's the real problem.
And unlike black jack, the probability of price movements in the market is very much depending on human's behavior rather than static number written on the cards. That is why the game of trading is yet to be cracked by anybody since even the investment tycoons (ie George Soros & Warren Buffet) made a huge loss once in a while when they got it wrong.
Unless you can strictly adapt the self-discipline definition as below, I guess the battle will continue...
Self discipline (Wikipedia)
Self-discipline refers to the training that one gives one's self to accomplish a certain task or to adopt a particular pattern of behaviour, even though one would really rather be doing something else. For example, denying oneself of an extravagant pleasure in order to accomplish a more demanding charitable deed. Thus, self-discipline is the assertion of willpower over more base desires, and is usually understood to be a synonym of 'self control'. Self-discipline is to some extent a substitute for motivation, when one uses reason to determine a best course of action that opposes one's desires. Virtuous behaviour is when one's motivations are aligned with one's reasoned aims: to do what you know is best and to do it genuinely gladly. Continent behaviour, on the other hand, is when one does what one knows is best, but must do it by opposing one's motivations.[3] Moving from continent to virtuous behaviour requires training and some self discipline.
Just like soldiers who are sent in troops and battalions of thousands of people, if they are not disciplined and systematic on the battlefield, they will lose regardless of how many are sent to the war zones...
In short - > System & Discipline Rules in whatever you do!... or you are subject to your own failures... Agreed?
Saturday, September 12, 2009
LESSONS FROM THIS WEEK TRADING...
I guess the Feng Shui is just not on my side this time. Time to take a break and review on what I have been doing all these while.
Ok, straight to the lessons learned (or perhaps lesson never learn coz some of them were previous mistakes that I tend to forget, well I'm just a normal human)...
1. The market force is very inevitable, just do not go against them. Simple.
2. I was longing the UJ a few times when the only thing to do with the pair is to go short this week.
3. I was longing the GU with 2 positions at 1.6539, it went down briefly to 1.6479, my Stop Loss was at 1.6439 (-100 pips), was on -60 in red, a bit panic, exit my both positions and the price raised back all the way to my original 100 pips 1st TP @ 1.6639 without looking back within 24 hours. The pair later topped at 1.6741 this week slightly over my 2nd planned TP @ 1.6739, could have got over 4k from these positions. What a mistake to pull out. I should have trust my position and hold on... but... how am I supposed to know? Last time when I hold it hunt me all the way to my SL...
4. The EU has been ranging for the past few weeks that I tend to forget that a breakout and trend is likely just around the corner. When this happenned, I still treat the pair as ranging and as a result, I breakeven whatever my gain on buying with the wrong position in selling.
5. When you have a strategic plan and a proven system, follow it dilligently. Do not try to be too smart or making earlier entry just for the sake of getting an extra few pips. This is what we call DISCIPLINE. Once you start bending the rules, it becomes a bad habit and subsequently you will make one bad entry to another...
6. The percentage of account drawdowns this week is significant and there is no one else to be blamed but myself. I must admit that I did take a few unsuccessful revenge trades that prove to be regrettable decisions.
7. The market has no mercy. Like it or not, I did feel like my stops were being attacked from time to time. The gurus told me to trade what you see, not what you think... but sometimes what you see could be deceiving, just like my case in item #3.
All in all, I have no choice but to come back from this week. I feel like being battered, slashed and slaughtered by the market, left naked by the corner with no one dares to care and ask who did this to me... pity huh?
And to my shareholders, please bear with me as I have full confidence in bringing back our winning streaks. I am glad that you guys are very understanding on the situation that whether we like it or not, this is just part of the game. We do have losing battles from time to time.
The question now? Can we still win the war? The answer is YES... but we should not rush...
I just need some time-out as I need to clear my mind from this week's unsuccessful battle with the market.
Enjoy your weekend Guys... and by the way, next week Hari Raya ! next week Hari Raya!
Thursday, September 10, 2009
MASUK JE SALAH... ?!@%$&*^#
Sememangnya permainan dagangan forex ini memerlukan kekuatan psikolgi dan mental yang mantap. Jika kita tidak betul betul memahami pergerakan pasaran, kita ada 1001 alasan untuk diberitahu kepada semua kenapa kita tidak berjaya...
Dagangan matawang ini melibatkan suatu percaturan matematik di mana tidak semua akan meraih kuntungan seperti yang diidam idamkan... walaupun ianya tidak mustahil sama sekali. Atau mat salleh panggil sebagai "zero sum game"... Senang cakap kalau dalam bahasa Melayu - Bila kita untung di sini, ada orang lain yang rugi, punah dan ranah di sana...
Satu soalan yg sering ditanya, malah aku sendiri selalu bertanya kepada diri ialah - "kenapa bila aku masuk je market start moving the other way?"... seolah olah ia menunggu masa sahaja sehingga kita masuk sebelum bergerak di arah yang bertentangan...
Walaupun persoalan ini berbunyi seakan akan amatur, tetapi percayalah even season traders pun akan ada mengalami perasaan yang sama...
Kalau setiap kali aku masuk sahaja market gerak di arah yang bertentangan, sampai bila pun aku tak untung... serupa tak payah main. Adakah ini benar? Jika semua rugi, siapa yang untung kalau macam tu?
Apa yang aku nampak adalah sebaliknya... dan inilah antara persoalan yang membawa kita kembali kepada asas forex iaitu psikologi, pengurusan kewangan dan sistem berdagang (psycho, money management & trading system)...
Bila kita hendak berdagang, perkara paling penting adalah psikologi dan mental yang stabil...
Bila ini stabil, apa yang diperlukan seterusnya adalah sistem trading dan kewangan yang mantap dan berkesan.
Mengikut Bob Prechter, ada 5 perkara yg perlu dilakukan untuk berjaya sebagai trader...
1. Mesti ada sistem - ie ENTRY vs EXIT Rules
2. Mesti ada disiplin untuk ikut sistem tersebut
3. Mesti raih pengalaman sebenar trading live account, main demo je takkan improve skill
4. Mesti tahu yang kerugian adalah sebahagian asam garam trading... nobody wins every trade.
5. Mesti tahu bagaimana untuk meraih keuntungan besar dalam sesuatu dagangan yang baik.
Pasaran matawang ni adalah pasaran yang hidup. Indicator adalah setakat signal yang memberitahu kebarangkalian pergerakan walaupun ianya tidak tepat... sama juga dalam dagangan yang lain seperti stok, option, futures & forward.
Bukan apa, kebelakangan ini aku banyak mengalami kerugian yang menjadikan aku ragu terhadap keyakinan aku untuk berdagang secara baik. Aku melakukan semua perkara yang betul seperti diatas tetapi tiada rezeki sebab pasaran bergerak tunggang terbalik... mungkin timing aku tak baik.
Pelbagai sistem telah digunakan dan tiada satu pun yang betul betul sempurna... Ianya membantu tetapi still kena careful...
Bila asyik rugi, sedikit sebanyak kita akan tertekan dan terlalai.. mula melakukan satu demi satu kesilapan. Ada baiknya aku rasa bila dalam keadaan tertekan seperti sekarang, perkara yang terbaik adalah untuk berhenti seketika...
Mungkin banyak kesilapan ini berpunca dari satu sebab - KELETIHAN... sebab aku masih berkerja di siang hari...
Tidak kira apa sistem pun yg digunapakai, bila keadaan fizikal dan mental tidak mengizinkan aku untuk berada di pasaran, kebarangkalian aku melakukan kesilapan dan revenge trade sangat tinggi... dan sekali kita hilang kawalan diri terhadap posisi kita di pasaran, kita seperti keling mabok bawak motor tunggu masa nak kena langgar jer...
Jadi, baiklah berhenti dan duduk sampai mabuk kita hilang sebelum berbuat apa apa... Sesal dahulu pendapatan, sesal kemudian tiada gunanya....
Bersambung...
Monday, September 7, 2009
WHO ARE YOU TO LABEL PEOPLE?
Their attitude is simple - They can easily put any sort of tagging on anyone's forehead even after the 1st meeting, and especially after you make a mistake. They are not a forgiver so later, whenever they hear something comes over from your tongue, you don't even have the chance to explain yourself before being cut out by their self-proclaimed "expert" opinion.
They can simply tell that you are wrong even without really knowing what you are trying to tell. At least they can ask but they don't. Get the point?
Hadn't these people realize that they are somehow very annoying to be dealt with? From my observation, these people are hardly achievers in their life as well, but they walk & talk a lot instead of shut-up and listen.
The reason I am pointing this out is simply to express my feeling of how weak and pity these people are indeed. They thought they are smart and they tend to believe that they know a lot, even without really reading and studying anything on that particular subject.
Since most of these people tend to be middle age man, they hardly learn and they believe their experience is more than enough for them to make sound judgment on what is going on around them.
And you know what... this is the main problem of middle and older aged man. They don't listen and they don't learn especially from someone who appears to be younger than them. As a result, jealousy comes in and they will have 1001 reasons on why these youngsters are more successful than them later on.
You see the problem here is not really with the young people, it is with the old & senior people who has bad habit within them & pure reluctance in listening to opinions and accept changes.
I am not very young also, but I enjoy a lot working with people younger and smarter than me, so that I keep on improving myself by extracting whatever knowledge and skills that I can learn from these youngsters.
By the way...
No one's perfect after all... so be it.
;)
Tuesday, September 1, 2009
A FOREX TRADER IS MORE LIKE A STORM CHASER...
Looking at the movement of price during a major breakout, I couldn't stop thinking about a tornado chasing anything that dares to stand in front of her... scary to most but enjoyable to the tornado chasers...
When it happens, it happens. You don't have to chase it as surely it will come after you, especially if you dare to stand along the way.
Look at the price chart for instance. You will see that during a ranging market, it's like an all clear and sunshine days. No surprise, no storm as the weather is perfectly good. Good on the macro-economics level I suppose, but isn't good for us as currency traders.
We do need this storm aka volatility in the market, well at least some weather pattern (or trend) that we could capitalize on. If day to day the weather remain as it is, say imagine the price of GBP/USD pairs remain at 1.6500 for 3 months without moving, then I bet all traders (especially intraday) would start wrapping up their account and begin doing some other business, like selling burgers?... haha.
Well then. The point of this writing is just to share my conceptual thinking on the market. I couldn't stop enjoying myself looking at the price patterns and movements, testing my technical and fundamental skills in speculating the "what's next?"... it is fun indeed, especially when you got it right...
I knew most forex gurus would tell you that you don't have to predict the market. All you have to do is just see the trend and jump in with a perfect timing. Right?
The question is... how do we define a perfect timing? ...especially to those who are doing this on a part time basis. There are just too many instances when we thought it was a perfect timing when the market suddenly moved against the trend... and us as well... how do we know?
So to me at least, like it or not... we do have to speculate at times, taking our chances based on calculated risks & hoping to be lucky and correct. As mentioned before, it is not that difficult, but it's not that easy either... Getting it right 50% of the time is all I need but that 50% is just not happening during a bad day, week or month...
The only difference that we all could make as a good trader (rather than gambler) is simply to know and manage our risk accordingly, like do not risk the money that you could not afford to lose bla bla bla...
Maybe I am not being in the market long enough (ie 2 years is nothing compared to most of you out there) but the pace and pain that I am willing to sacrifice in order to fully comprehend this market is really something that I personally don't believe... something that really triggers my interest...
I wish there will be subjects on forex engineering somedays... so that we all could appreciate the art of human's behavior in driving these market volatilities aka tornados...
One more point before I forget, as a good trader, we do not chase these tornados actually. We let it form and come to us so that we could capitalize their strength accordingly to our advantage. Fighting the turbulence & tornados is surely a suicide... so it's either you join it on-time or stay out untill the weather is clear again...
Have A Nice Trading Week Guys... ;)
DELUSIONAL LEADERS ARE WAITING FOR THEIR COMPLETE FUNERALS...
Let me tell you why... Today's another surprise came by... with all the by-elections won by the oppositions and the H1N1 still being the newspaper headlines, all of sudden the people are burden with the fuel price hike... though little, it is still out of nowhere... Come on! the crude is traded at well below USD80 dollars per barrel (USD70.33 by the time of writing) and the minister claims this price hike is base on USD82 per barrel price. Bullshit! We're not living in Ice Age guys... especially traders like us...
"In 4th Q 2008 they said that RON92 would be banish and in its place would be RON95 and RON 97. But prices would remain the same. They lied. Yesterday the minister in charge quoted USD82pbl as his reason for that increase, he was wrong. Yesterday crude oil traded at USD71.50pbl. Why quote December 08? Don’t tell me they paid at that point? The suffering is today." - one of the comment taken from Chedet.cc
Frankly speaking, I love peace and stability and that is why I am more on supporting the exisiting government rather than the Oppositions. But looking at today's condition and the sheer weaknesses of the leaders's up there... I guess it is about time for their complete funeral on the next election.
Racism, equal rights, chronisms, job losses, price hikes... what else... you name it. All these are hot fuels that are ready to be burned, waiting for the right flashpoint before it can all be iginited at the same time.
And the government --> Rather than controlling the possibility of this ignition, funny but true they even put more catalysts to it... Arrghhh.. how I wish.... ??
Are they (or should I put he?) sleeping or what? Or simply demonstrating their absolute futility?
Pity but true... I must say that sooner or later this Government can no longer sustain its supremacy on this land... They thought the people support them, but the truth is otherwise...
If someone who is so neutral like me can no longer retain his pH level at 7, then what about those who are already on the extreme side of the equations...
I don't know what to say... but perhaps this advice would work --->
Sleep well my leaders... You guys will be awaken... Soon... Perhaps inside your coffins...