As a trader in this extremely volatile and dynamic market, where do we position ourselves? Are you in control or is it fear or greed that is more dominant in your decision making? Or... should we wait for the right signals and confirmation in which by that time, you are likely 100 miles behind, or should we take a bet on either to further short the dollar or taking some calculated risks on betting for the reversals.
You see, this is where currency analysts play their cards wisely. I take the Dailyfx Plus signals for instance. Though you can blindly follow the signals at your own risk, I still trust my own due diligence and analysis of the market rather than relying on these signals. Let me tell you why...
The way I look at the trading signals that are provided, it seems like someone behind the scenes is giving all these trade ideas simply by rolling a dice, or after a significant spike or short term rally occur on any pair. Statistically, most of the time, you would be more profitable if you just do the reverse instead of following these signals... but of course, not necessarily all the time.
The point that I am trying to share here is that... no one really knows how the market would behave in the next 30 seconds, 30 minutes or 30 days and hence, even these experts are giving these signals base on probability accordingly to their technical & fundamental analysis in which, to my observation, is hardly accurate or any better than your own analysis.
Therefore, the choice is yours and you should know at what you are doing in the first place. Rather than relying blindly on these signals, analyze & justify your trade decisions accordingly to your own analysis, and of course... stick with it.
Back to the US Dollar topic, I guess the best word that you may heard from most analysts out there is caution. But if you ask me, I would say take action instead. Look closely at those candlesticks on EU especially, this could be one of the rare opportunity for you to enter as a swinger.
Why? Though no one can ever tell you what is going to happen next, somehow my gut feeling and analysis is telling that sooner or later, the trend is coming for a major technical correction, probably not reversal as the dollar is likely to continue its journey downward from the bigger perspective.
If you're interested, feel free to read further on the dollars fundamental & technical analysis from Actionforex.com since their analysis has no bias on any direction. Personally, I really like their technical analysis as it makes my job a lot easier.
Then, you choose base on what you think and see likely to happen. Don't be either too greed (as in putting big positions with no clear direction...) or too fear (as such you do not pull the trigger when everything is indeed clear for you to act). Balance these two beasts within you accordingly...
So... once again, where the US dollar is going for now? Personally, I don't know but for sure it has been on sideways and choppy movement during these past few days and weeks but... you must remember that normally a range bound movement will likely be followed by a major breakout that will for sure happen in the next few days or weeks. It's just a matter of when...
Base on the current setup, I am bullish bias on the dollar looking at the date today approaching December and high probability of profit taking of the big boys who had shorted the dollar since February or March this year... Look at the monthly/weekly chart and surely you know at what am I talking about.
This is what I see for now and for sure, I could be wrong as well. So if you choose to follow, please take your positions accordingly to your comfort risk level as well since you must take accountability on each trading decision that you made, regardless of making profit or losses on the outcomes.
All the best...
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