This is my 99th post of this blog and hence the next one shall be something special that I would like to share with my fellow traders who are kind enough to read my writings...
As I have always mentioned before, the reason for me to have this blog is more on sharing, genuinely on what I have learned and experienced so far in life especially in this trading journey, towards my own destiny of financial freedom... You may or may not believe, but the fact is... those writings are honestly written without any prejudice...
Ok... so what shall I share this time... Listen up...
First, I have a few requests from my close colleagues on conducting classes on how to trade forex profitably... and unfortunate enough, lately after having a new baby boy coming on-board, I am a little bit extra occupied in balancing a new routine... well, extra commitments mean got to sacrifice a few things initially... you can't get everything in life right... so need to prioritize things accordingly...
Secondly, there is no such thing as getting a winning trade all the time. I had heard a few traders claimed that they never had a lost trade and later discovered that these guys are actually cruising their losing positions without stop loss for weeks and even months... yeah sure, if you have a strong margin with relatively small capital at risk, you surely can even ride your position for years... or perhaps decades... but what's the point?
So, back on your feet... be true and frank with what you're doing and your intention in trading. We are here to make money, no others... and there is no place for average traders to survive in this market.
Hence, to make profit consistently... you need 5 things at least...
1. Get into the right trade... find and use a reliable trading system...
2. Risk appropriately... 3% and below... the lower the better...
3. Time your entry well... avoid especially big news like NFP if you do not know how to trade the NEWS.
4. When in profits, lock it at breakeven or higher...
5. When in losing position, decide your tolerable risk and stick to it with a fix stop... Avoid margin call at all costs...
Ok, so what's with the 50 pips strategy ?...
You see... by looking at the daily candlesticks chart, everyday when the New York close at 5am (now 6am due to Daylight saving), you will see that normally for all the major pairs, plus some exotic crosses like the GBP/JPY and EUR/JPY, there is for sure the tendency for the pair to move either...
50 pips UP or
50 pips DOWN...
during the early Asian Session... especially when the trend is clear and the force is dominant on one side.. either bull or bear on the previous day...
Taking advantage on the momentum or trend, plus of course some smart risk management application at all times, you could easily get these early days 50 pips during the early mornings each day...
Surely it doesn't happen everyday, but there are more days when catching these 50 pips early in the morning seems easy than after London Session and beyond...
Ok ok, you may miss the points here... let me reiterate...
1. Trading is all about a game of probability... so..
2. The way I see it... you can test your probability speculative skills by looking at the daily chart... and
3. Visualize the possibility of today's chances of movement (any pair you like)...
4. Either 50 pips up or 50 pips down... or a 1 to 1 Risk Reward ratio...
5. Try this on any pair you like, starting with EU and GU... avoid UJ for the time being...
6. And set your SL and TP both at 50 pips...
7. Record the statistics and see how you perform...
If you can get it right 6 out of 10 attempts, meaning hitting your 50 pips TP instead of SL, then well done! You are already a good currency speculator... BUT...
If you hit more SL rather than your TP... then you must check back your system and setup...
A good system will give you good returns on average, with at least 60% accuracy...
So, why 50 instead of 10 or 100...?
Ok, frankly speaking, 10 pips are just too little... you can get out at 10 if you want but then, it takes you only one mistake with 50SL to wipe out your 5 profitable trades with TP @ 10 pips each...
Now what about 100... ok, hundred is too big on normal days, especially during Asian Session and hence I do not recommend you to use this strategy with 100 pips coz on normal average days, currency pairs normally range between this 100 pips channel until later during London Session or big news hit the market...
So, 50 is the best range, or perhaps you could even try with 25 to 30 pips as well... this is a 1:1 risk reward strategy so you must discipline yourself to maintain your TP and SL at the same value... simply to test your accuracy in speculating the market...
One more thing... look around and ask yourself... is this a fair game? are there many losers or winners in this market? Be true and surely you knew the answer...
So, base on my experience, like it or not, you do have to speculate at times, but of course, using both the technical and fundamental approach in trading by reading the market's psychology correctly at the same time...
Just like in visualizing the probability of 50 pips movement up or down... you need to apply your analytical skills instead of blindly putting position base on gamblers instinct or guess works, even though you can do it with profit probabilities as well....
Last but not least, I knew most newbies & dummies guide would tell you bla bla bla just follow the system, don't guess, don't speculate etc etc but the fact is... most of us who follow the system blindly would end up being dissapointed... right?
So, bear in mind that...
- it is not easy to trade forex...
- if you want to be an expert, do it with all your heart...
- I myself is still learning and will keep on learning...
- I will share what I knew with the hope that there is someone who is better than me who could and would share his trading intelligence with me in the long run... so that I could expedite my financial freedom goal sooner than expected...
- You too can become good if you keep on looking for ways to improvise things...
Till my next 100th post... take care and stay safe...
;)
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