I AM CALLING FOR EUR/USD & GBP/USD CORRECTION in APRIL...

Since the downfall of Euro from 1.5144 and GBP from 1.7041 to current level of 1.3xxx and 1.4xxx respectively, it seems that both currencies are already showings signs of (at least) temporary bottom at 1.3437 (EUR/USD) and 1.4782 (GBP/USD) respectively.

Is it time for the bull to fight back? (ie at least temporarily)

Are the bears running out of steam already?

If you asked me, I would say probably yes but it is very likely temporary since the sentiment now is very much supporting the US dollar's strength, plus worries on the Eurozone due to Greece concern.

So, if I were to have swing short positions at both 1.51 (EU) and 1.6 (GU),  I would most likely pull out my positions now and go for the retracement instead before the next wave of bears attack coming in.

But, I am not recommending anything here as I am just giving my opinion base on the current market movement. Just remember that I could be wrong, like anyone else. It is up to you to analyse and decide but I am going for the bullish opportunity this April.

Anyway, please watch out for your entry timing as well as sound money management since severe volatility could kill anyone who are not prepared for such a thing, especially during a fundamental news release that are hardly predictable.

So if today's upward movement is to continue upward, I am expecting both pairs to travel back to at least 50% fibonacci retracement in April where EU would reach back 1.4280 and GU to reach 1.5800 before the next downfall, in which the next wave of big sellers would come in.

Just watch out guys. There are definitely thousands of opinions out there but I am telling you base on what I see both on the technical and fundamental aspect of it which serves as alternate options for you to consider.

Take my advice. Bear in mind that anything can happen here so just do your own analysis and don't be obsessed by any analyst' words as none of them would give you sure-profit-warranty over their expert's opinion.

I still believe in USD's artificial strength for the rest of the year, but of course, continuous supply & demand effect from the market will definitely fluctuate the price to levels where you as speculator could take advantage of by knowing where to position yourself accordingly in the market base on what is currently happening.

Safe Trade...

TILL TODAY... I DO NOT RECOMMEND USING ANY KIND OF FOREX EA OR ROBOTS... UNLESS...

You wrote or created the robot by yourself... in which you really understand the pre-set algorithms and condition for this robot to perform its best...

When I first started my trading career, one of my earliest online guru straight away giving his ADVICE not to use any kind of EA or Robot... AT ALL...

Yeah surely I had no idea on why he was insisting on that since at that moment, I do have a plan of trading the market with hands-free method by having (of course thru buying) the most expensive robot available in the market... And yeah, I did spend thousands buying some of the top-notch robot available (you name it) at that time.

I do not know about you, but after throwing more and more money experimenting these EA's, the conclusion is only one... NONE of them satisfies me... & NONE performs as advertised... I repeat... NONE...

Though I do not regret discovering the truth by my own real experience, somehow I do have this grudge towards the creators of these EA's who seems to me, selling their EAs without any sense of responsibility, except a few worth to mention like FAPTURBO & EA SHARKS that keeps their promise & after sales service & support...

I do not really intend to elaborate more on this subject as the message is pretty clear...

So I just summarise my opinions as follows:

1. Normally, most EAs could and would perform well only during a steady-trended market, where volatility is low. But in real day-to-day market condition, this is hardly happening, merely 30% of the time only.

2. EA's that are hardly programmed (likely a modified version or copy rather than genuine program) would either open a trade like a thirsty horse (always having a few open positions) or... never open a trade at all for the whole week unless all the written algorithm is met (which is very hard).

3. It is NOT EASY to get the best or correct setting for these EAs. When you email the owner, you normally get these answers as well - check your setting bla bla bla.... until you feel give up using the EA...

4. Just remember that market is made of people... If robot can do it all, I believe all the stock exchanges around the globe and Wall Street will require zero human intervention.

5. Sellers of EA (most if not all) are simply fishing for money from newbies who hardly aware of there is no such thing as Holy Grail in trading. They use the money they got from you for trading the market manually since they themselves do not trust these robots.

6. You will never learn and appreciate the market by using EA in your trading.

7. You will sure lose your money by (first) buying the EA, and (second) leaving your account to autopilot even during turbulence takeoff and/or landing, where the word "crash" is 99.99% likely to happen.. get the point?

The reason I wrote about this subject is of course, as usual some of my new-trader-to-be colleague questioned and enquired information on the reality of these FX EAs... so I just told him to checkout my blog.

I am just giving my opinion here (base on my real experience) so the rest please do your own assessment. Try experience any of these EA and tell me if you make money CONSISTENTLY with it.. I mean real money... I don't want backtest result...

Since for now.. I have totally abandon any kind of EA or Trading Robot application in my forex trading...

It is indeed a good decision since I am now more independent (ie trusting myself better) and of course having more confidence in taking my trade decisions...

Take care & Safe trade Guys... ;)

YOU TOO CAN BECOME A VERY GOOD TRADER... BUT...

You have to remember that...

1. There is no shortcut to become one... Nothing comes easy...

2. This is not a get-rich-quick scheme...

3. Those successful traders that you (may) see around you did not come to that stage in one or two years period... Most graduated from the school of hard-knocks... They too lost (a lot of) money... likely even more than you could ever imagine...

4. Learning is a must and continuous process... Doing something without proper knowledge is a sure way to failure..

5. A trader is not a gambler... A trader approaches the market with systematic risk management and taking chances base on market probability... Our aim is to prosper for sure, but before that, you must consider survival as your preliminary target since most new traders do not last that long in the market...

6. You must give yourself ample time to learn, grow, experience and remember certain aspects of the market that are hardly written in the book. What I mean is that you need to be realistic with your target... say to become an established trader in 3 years time rather than "I will turn this 1000 dollar into a million within 12 months"....

7. Self control is almost everything apart from proper risk management. Most traders destroy their account (inclusive me... ;) due to self-sabotaging activities in which they simply can't handle the first lost that followed by another loss (revenge) and another.... until the whole account is burnt out... this is indeed among the hardest part of trading that any individual trader must learn to master...

8. This is a serious business (i.e. not some sort of HYIP or internet investment scheme etc) and hence requires serious attention if you decided to venture. If you play around with the market, gambling or blindly open a position without knowing what's going on... I can guarantee that you won't last a week with your account...

9. This is where George Soros, Warren Buffet, Central Banks, The Feds, The Brokers, The Tycoons you don't know, you and myself are putting our bets altogether in speculating where that particular pair (ie EUR/USD) is going... If I bet the EUR/USD is going down but Soros and the Gang think otherwise... who do you think would win? The point is... think like Soros and the Gang... and of course, the majority of the market players... They moved the market, not you or me...

10. Though hardly being discussed, it is important that you stay fit and focus. When I look back at some of my major losses, reason being are due to lack of focus and energy when I executed that particular trade. When I am tired, my analysis and tactical thinking suffer and to make things worse, most of these losses were potentially good trades if only I just stick to the original plan. Losses incurred were due to poor decision in either pulling out too soon or too hold on beyond original stop loss...

Remember these 10 points by heart... I am sharing from my very own experience and yes, looking back at all these points, most subjects would only relate to one matter no other than YOU... since the market is always there behaving the way it intend to be...

The summary is only one

- You just need to master yourself in becoming a really good trader.. the rest you leave it to the market to decide....

Safe trade guys... ;)

WHO ARE YOUR ACCOUNT KILLERs ?

Talking about survivability in the market, it is all about risk management...

The way I personally experience it, most traders can get into the right trade every now and then, but no one can get it correct all the time... no one... no matter how good your system is... unless, and I really mean it, you are someone who has the ultra-patience to wait (and wait and wait and wait...) for the right setup to kick in.

What I meant here is not for you to glue yourself to the screen all day long, but to wait and be there when the moments come.

As a part time trader (still for now), I discover that one of the biggest challenge is to be there when a good setup is formed. You can make pending order etc but that is simply not my style as I prefer to trade and scalp the price actions most of the time, especially when big economic news are released.

Trading and scalping the price action from the 15M candle is pretty easy if you knew how, but then you need to be there when the action starts, or when the market start making a call for you to join in....

Anyway, back to the subject matter... I do believe now (even stronger) that it is poor risk management that acts as the number one killer to your account... getting it right is of course important, but to survive during a losing streak? It is all about having a good risk management... with of course, a half-decent system that gives you the winning edge.

For now, instead of deciding on the % of the account that I am willing to lose, I play around with the dollar sign... meaning that I do decide upfront on how many dollars that I can afford to put on the line for this one particular trade... but yes, still this is normally within 1% to 5% of the account level... at times, 10% is the most...

AND YES, join in the market during the European - London - US Session overlap only... Other than those periods (except when big news), market would normally be moving without any significant volume or big players...

Anyhow, as a trader, please do not forget that though risk management is vital, still ultimately... it is your psychology that needs to be in a balance state as not to initiate any unnecessary trade when the market condition is not conducive for you to join in....

Whether you survive, prosper or highly successful in forex trading, 90% of this depends on you... so when I discovered the statistic that 90% of traders lose money, it is because they didn't realize that 90% of their winning factors do lie within them that they have yet discover or realize... Instead of perfecting themselves (ie as trader), they look for a perfect system, blaming the market when the trade went against them, blame the brokers etc etc etc...

Do not victimize yourself in such a way you put yourself among these 90% of losers. I am not saying that I have already become the top 10% of traders, but for sure I am working days and nights into becoming one...

And most importantly... I believe in what I am doing to reach that level... it is a matter of when...

Safe trade Guys... I am still in recovery mood from last month's losses...

;)

LOOK FOR STRENGTH AND ACCEPT WEAKNESSES...

When dealing with people, whether we already knew, just know or hardly know, most tend to be very individualistic in such a way we like to look for people weaknesses rather than strength.

Agree or Not?

Ok, the point here is that we humans are very prone to look for reasons and factors that somehow we are better, richer, or whatever than the other persons. Though this is pretty universal and natural to human beings, I discovered remaining in such a state will give you more trouble rather than advantage.

Yup, being humble, nice, and down to earth is always the ideal and preferred attitude for most people. But to be good is not that easy either. Tendency to look for faults, errors and mistakes by the other party is always there. We love to point fingers to others in a way we forget that the rest 4 fingers are pointing back at  us...

Anyway, take these tips, live with it and hang on it... chances are you will prosper better than anyone else.

1. When dealing with someone, always look for their strength.
2. If you discover any weaknesses, hold it within you as your secret weapon. Do not reveal or tell unless they ask what could be improved...
3. In order to improve yourself, always ask for feedbacks and opinions. It may not be pleasant to know and learn your weaknesses from a third party point of view, but trust me, it helps a lot, especially from someone you can trust.

Last but not least, learn to appreciate people's time and always say thank you regardless of how big or small that person's contribution is...

To me...

Being nice doesn't mean that you are weak...

By the way, this blog is still alive... It's just that I was too occupied with my day job (PSR2 Revamp Project Final Stage - since Dec 2009) that I didn't even have time to trade almost for the whole month...

For sure I will write more on forex matters this month after everything is settled... I mean my project.

Take care...