WHERE WILL THE DOLLAR AND YEN GO FOR 2010?

Today is the final day of 2009, as well as the trading day. The market will close early (with European Banks already close for New Year's Eve) and will open a new calendar on 4th January 2010. Anyway...

Most of us may wonder and think what would it be and how would the market behave in 2010, including myself. If only Nostradamus is still alive, I believe most are willing to pay thousands just to get his prediction on the market so that we all can position ourselves precisely with maximum profit potentials.

The question is... should we predict the market or should we just react base on what the market is doing in 2010?

I bet the answer is YES and NO for both of the questions above. Why?

Depending on the way you trade, swinger, position or scalping mehod, the best is always to analyse and emphatize on what the market is doing on daily, weekly as well as monhly basis.

The main reason to this is simply because that the market is made of humans. Though humans behavior are predictable in certain ways, you must remember that sentiments do change from one point to another, mostly clouded by the fear and greed factors of these market participants.

So, for us to predict the whole year movement? No way... I bet even Mr Soros would probably put a general analysis on probabilities rather than a specific one. Why am I saying this? This is because the fact is NO ONE REALLY KNOWS.

Yes, no one really knows. Do not talk about a year from now, even what will happen in the next 5 minutes remain as a big question to everybody.

In some cases, yes you have to speculate where the market is going base on technical and fundamental probabilities. But most of the time, all you have to do is actually wait, see and follow what the market is doing. Pretty simple actually provided you have a strong heart as well as good money management in hand. You can't win it all the time after all...

Talking about speculative skill, this is something that I develop from within in year 2009 that I hadn't discover in 2008. I knew most gurus would say that you don't have to... but if you ask me, I don't believe it. I knew this based on my own experiences from the past 2 years.

The thing is, when you do speculate, you must not afraid of being wrong. This is normal and it's just part of the game. All it takes is simply a good risk management in order to protect you from total burnout. To remain in the game as long as possible with wealth creation along the way, you just have got to play the game by its rule.

Some of the important rules of trading that you must know are:

1. This is not a fair game. Not everybody will make money here. It's a zero sum game but... do it correctly with a winning-edge sytem plus splendid risk management, you surely can make it.

2. Trend is your friend, but not the market. The market's intention is always to take away your money from your pocket. So always be careful... and exit your trade when it is not in your favor. Stop giving away your money! Protect it and take it back later...

3. There are lots of gamblers in this market, just don't become one. The one who stays at the top 10% who makes money all the time are those who learned to become traders, not gamblers. Gamblers do win big at times, but they don't survive.

4. Market is made of humans, not signals. So, do not blindly buy or sell base on signals. You have to check several other things too before taking any trade decision. At times during thin liquidity, yes the market makers can and will manipulate the price by attacking stops and creating price spikes. I learned this from Beat The Forex Dealer book, and base on my experience, I have reasons to believe that it is true. The point is - avoid the market during thin liquidity period especially during Asian Session or holiday seasons like these past 2 ending weeks of December.

5. Focus on quality rather than quantity. Making money in forex is all about getting into the right trade. If you can get it right 100% of the time, then money management is not applicable. But then, the reality is - no one get it right all the time, NO ONE and that is the sole reason you need to have a good risk management system in order to protect you in case you are wrong.

6. You must have your own style. If you don't have one, develop it slowly. Honestly, I learned more about myself rather than the market since I started my trading career. You must know who you are in the first place, learn to be patience and remain discipline all the time in following your own pre-define system. The fact is, it is so easy to become impatient and undiscipline in many cases, and this is the fact to the majority of market players, the bottom 90%. So, if you wish to become the top 10% or 3% in the market, really all it takes is to master yourself in behaving appropriately in the market. There is no guarantee for sure, but chances are better that you will become successful.

7. Last but not least, never add to a losing position and always use STOP LOSS. Just define it upfront because anything can happen here. I did burn my account a few times when MAMA calls (ie margin calls)... Main reason was simply trading without stops. You could survive with a well funded account, but the fact is market can go against your position indefinitely. There is no point holding a losing position with -1000 pips and no clear sign of come back... It hurts man.. just dont do it... I knew a guy who has to wait 7 months before the price ever come back to his entry point... 7 months!

In a nutshell, my simple advise, read all you can read but do not trust them blindly. The best guru is no other than the market itself. Look at the market objectively and try to understand what the market is doing, especially on the pair that you choose to trade. If either the bulls or bears are in clear domination, just don't go against them... simple. This is because you just don't know how far these bulls or bears can go and you alone can never fight the strength of their stampede... you can hold on in certain cases but you must define your limit before they crush you.

So if you plan to trade without Stops, think back... you may survive especially with well funded account, but it only take one mistake to burn you out. Just learn to position your stops accordingly... simple rule of thumb, put your stops at location where you see/believe the market will likely not to go technically or fundamentally. If happen they go there, raise your white flag, surrender and come back later... Do this and you'll become a better trader with higher precision.

So now... What is my forecast on the US Dollar and Yen in 2010?

Hmmm... Actually I don't have one. I would prefer to see what happen in the 1st week, trading what I see rather than what I wish to see. Or frankly speaking, I don't care. All I care is my account and whether I make money or not.. haha.

Anyway, from market fundamental and technical point of view, I would say that if the US Feds keep on broadcasting the idea of increasing interest rates and exit strategy on all these TARP Funds, chances are dollar will continue to rally, depending on the market buy-in's on such sentiment.

Further to that, there are also worries on the Eurozone economic's climate that may further push the Euro as well as Sterling down even further.

And the Yen? Aha this one from the way I see it will become a funding currency, taking back its status from the dollar this year since Yen has been rallying crazily in the past two years against everyone else. The Japs do not like the yen strength either so the outlook for Yen in 2010 is more on the bearish side, whereas dollar on the bullish side.

As usual, I could be wrong. But let's see what happen in January 2010 first...

Finally, adios to year 2009 & Happy New Year 2010 to everybody... especially to my fellow traders and you as a kind reader of this blog.

Take care and safe trade for 2010 and beyond...

As for my trading, I am committed to reach my first 6 & 7 figures this year... It's definitely not easy, but I'm going to try... ;))

MY 7 COMMON WEAKNESSES AS A TRADER... LATEST...

1. I always have this feeling that if I don't take the trade now, I would probably be left behind by the market. Most of the time, these results in taking bad trade rather than good one.

2. I always have this feeling that the market would behave accordingly to my expectation... but most of the time, it doesn't.

3. I do love to take 'stupid trades' (i.e. I don't want to use the "g" word) once in a while, playing along with my profits gained during early weeks. You see, when I follow my system & rules, I do make money 80% of the time. Consequently when discipline is taken for granted, "shit happens" and I gave back my profit to the market at the end of the week. Reason being : Playing around = Not serious = Punished by the market = The market isn't my friend = Hazardous = Don't play around.

4. I do not time my entry accordingly to 15 minutes, or 1 hour intervals as planned. At times, I do love to speculate the news as well. Though bad for trading, the reward is awesome if I get it right. Still this is a bad habit to retain as a trader. Need to unlearn this immediately.

5. I do ride my losses once in a while. When you are stucked somewhere in between -10 to -50 pips, it is not easy to make decision whether to stay or pull out... Why? When you pull out, the market come back, when you stay, it goes even deeper into the red zones. So what to do? Can someone tell?

6. Mostly, I trade what I see. When market swing against my original plan, the tendency to change my plan is high. At times, I get it right. Most of the time, it's better to stick with the original plan.

7. Sometimes, I am simply unfit to trade but due to "love of the game" spirit within me, I still force myself to have at least one position in a day, though the setup is hardly good or trad-able.

You see, the summary to these weaknesses are all about self-control, and it takes lifetime to correct them if we fail to identify them accordingly.

To me, these are my most common weaknesses that I am still working on to unlearn. We humans can never run away from weaknesses but it is our job to identify them and rectify them one by one. Otherwise, I would never reach the top 3% that I always dream of, making tons of money with unconscious competency within me...

What about you? Are they the same or is it just my problems?

I SEE 'NO' BIG MONEY IN THE MARKET...

Christmas is approaching fast and New Year is just around the corner.

I guess most (if not all) institutional traders are already out of the market, mainly with their swing profit. We could see clearly since yesterday that daily volume as well as range has significantly decreased, unlike weeks before.

Does this mean that the market is no longer tradable in the coming 2 weeks? I guess the answer is close to yes, though not a definite one.

You see, one of the simplest indicator is when "the beast" (ie GBP/JPY) was hardly making any significant range (yesterday was barely above 100 pips range : 145.45 - 146.46 = 101 pips), it's kind of a clear sign that most participants are already out of the market.

Though I may still scalp a few pips here and there, still with lower volume and liquidity, the best is to stay out until new year comes.

Nevertheless, looking at the sentiment and technical structure of the market, definitely the dollar is still on the bull run. No one dares to pick a bottom with this kind of setup so better stay with the bears, at least for a while. After all, the bulls have had their fair share since March 2009 already, so perhaps the bears are taking turn now, at least until first week of 2010.

So, rather than going long on EU or GU, I would prefer to wait for sell opportunities on these pairs, until at least it reaches any of the Fibonacci key support levels on both EU (1.4000) and GU (1.5706).

Till next week, Merry Christmas & Happy New Year....

;)

HAS THE TREND CHANGE... YET?

The majority always re-act rather than act. The fall of Euro and Sterling for the last 2 weeks seems giving an alarm to those who are staying long with their position as taking the top into consideration, it's been over 800 pips declined for the Euro as well as Sterling since their previous top in December.

The question is... what do we do now? Should we go short all the way till New Year, stay aside or just defy the market's movement.

Clearly the third option is not a wise decision.

Now, looking at the gold price as well, it seems like investors are starting to cash-out their dollar investment in this precious metal. The Bloomberg as well as CNBC were talking about the gold support price at 1008.00 but the way I see it the gold could go down to 1000.00 before making a serious rebound or trend to a new high beyond the 1226 level.

At the same time, year 2010 is approaching fast in the next 2 weeks and some speculators are still talking about the fall of Dollars to continue in 2010. Is this a true claim or is it just a blind opinion base on what they believe?

What about us as retail traders? It is up to you actually. If you asked me... of course for now I will remain bearish with the Euro and GBP but of course, will be caution along the way especially with the Fibonacci levels on this new downtrend for these 2 pairs.

So, what's the verdict for next week?

Though I clearly mentioned that I will remain bearish on these 2 pairs, it doesn't mean that I will blindly shorting them without any safety precaution. As of the daily candlestick is showing a doji formation on the last day of trading for this week (on both pairs), it could be an early sign that the bear is running out of steam.

Hence, for next week, though bears are clearly in control, the bulls are likely to make a brief come back and push the price a little bit higher to the 1.4600 level for Euro and 1.6350 for the Sterling. Those 2 levels are the 38.2% retracements for the price falls between 1.5144 - 1.4262 (Euro) and 1.6879 - 1.6050 (GBP).

Contrarily, if these 2 pairs ever continue its downward journey straight away on Monday, Euro could probably try to break the 1.4122 levels and the Sterling will probably move South towards its next support at 1.5706.

On the long run, as long as the Euro do not breach the 1.3500 level and the Sterling stays above 1.4900, chances are they are still on the bull run. But if any of these levels are broken, then prepare for a long term downtrend for these pairs as well as long term uptrend for the dollars.

Yeah sure I could be wrong. But you must remember that in this "anything can happen" market, the market will do whatever it believes. And the reality is :- there is no such thing as top or bottom because if you look closely, the market can either be topless or bottomless... as far as there are buyers or sellers who are willing to push the price further...

In summary, my advice is always :- just be careful with your trade... The tribe has spoken and the price itself is the real indicator above other indicators that you could be using... Hence, always stick to the market's decision as they are always right no matter what...

BE HUMBLE GUYS...

I happened to discover that there are just too many people around me who seems busy and trying hard to tell people how superior they are, though the fact is clearly otherwise.

The thing is, I do love to get around and be around wonderful people who are skilfull, knowledgable and experience in what they are doing. The more good people we know the better we become, especially if we have the chance to learn from their experience.

Nevertheless, unlike these people, the common trait that I used to discover with people or persons who are really good is:

THEY ARE EXCEPTIONALLY HUMBLE...

They never tell people that they are good. Instead they simply demonstrate their goodness, competencies and skills via their actions and results. Normally they are down to earth type, never humiliate anybody and always treat people with respect regardless of who they are. To certain extent, some may perceived that they are weak though the fact is they are laying low beneath their actual strength.

Well, though I knew the fact that this writing would probably not going to change anyone, I am just sharing my thoughts on dealing with these "they thought they are good" type of people...

Still remember one of the golden advice from my former BM Teacher in Victoria Institution, Datin Maimun. She always reminded me that "if you want to be the best, never ever think that you are the best... just do your best" (ie kalau nak jadi yang terbaik, jgn sekali kali fikir kita ni yang terbaik... usaha sahaja)....

Hmmm... I guess after 15 years of leaving my secondary education in VI, I believe that is one of the best advice I had ever received.

Yeah sure you can be good and arrogant, but what do you get by doing that? People may curse you, they are hypocrite upon you and probably God won't bless you either. Just think about it.

• Being humble doesn't make you weak.
• Being nice doesn't mean you are not firm.
• Being considerate doesn't mean that you are not strict.

These are all poor perception and beliefs for those who are stucked-up with their limited knowledge and experience.

Guys, why not take a step behind and look back into yourself and define what you want in life.

To me, who you are in this world is hardly meaningful to anyone else but you. So, my point is... there is no point of being snobbish, stuck up and arrogant (ie. keturunan syok sendiri dan perasan best) because you get nothing from it.

Be strong in terms of who you are from the inside is much more important than what you want people to perceive you from the outside. Just remember, quality speaks for itself... you don't have to tell people that you're good coz if you're good, even a 5 year old kid can tell.

Belows are some of the most successful people that I personally knew are humble but with dragon hearts inside. I believe if you plan to become arrogant and/or snobbish, you must at least achieve a step higher than these humble Dato's, Tan Sri's and Tun's... Otherwise, you don't deserve to be haughty with your limited achievement...

Just to name a few... you think you knew these faces? Trust me... They are exceptionally humble...

TAN SRI SYED MOKHTAR AL-BUKHARY

TAN SRI DATO SRI MOHD HASSAN MARICAN

DATUK ADUL SAMAD HAJI ALIAS

TUN DR MAHATHIR MOHAMAD - OUR FORMER PRIME MINISTER

NOW WOULD YOU BELIEVE ME THAT REAL SUCCESSFUL PEOPLE ARE MOSTLY (IF NOT ALL) HUMBLE?

SO IF YOU'RE NOT HUMBLE, CHANCES ARE YOU ARE NOT REALLY SUCCESSFUL...

:))

DEVELOP A WINNING MINDSET... always tell yourself that "I AM THE TOP 10%"...

One of the common question that we would always ask ourselves after taking losses or being attacked by a sudden big move in the market is: -

"Why the h**l did the market went against me in such a cruel manner? Why can't it happen before I entered this position so at least I can refrain myself from taking this trade, or at least do the reverse?"

Sounds common huh? Well... that is just part of the game. At times, you just feel that the market is always against you. Whatever you did, the market will just do the reverse. When you buy, it goes down and when you sell, it goes up... and it feels like the market is playing against you all the time. If this is true, then how are we suppose to make money from this market? The answer is...

Though you may feel that you are being bullied, or perhaps someone somewhere like the trading brokers or tycoons are controlling the market etc... the fact is indeed otherwise.

The fact is - the market doesn't even know that you're there in the first place. It's just you and yourself... whether you make or lose money, whether you're there or not, whether you ride your losses or profits... the market doesn't even care at all...

That is why I always like to use the phrase of taking advantage on the market. Second phrase is always keep yourself emotionally detached from the market all the time. Last but not least the third one is - regardless what your indicators are showing, always analyze the price actions first.

Let me explain in little bit detail why those 3 phrases are important.

1. Making Profits by Taking Advantage on the Market

- I never consider my presence in the market as important. I am nobody and any transaction that I am doing with my trading have no or maybe some pico-effect on the price movement. So, never ever think that you could move the market - NO WAY. But... it is the collective actions of traders who choose to become either bulls or bears that really create the big moves, apart from the BIG BOYS (ie Banks, Market Makers, Tycoons, Institutional Traders etc) whom normally provide the kick-start to these movements that later fuel up by the collective trades by the retail traders like us. The point is - the market is BIG and we small traders can only make money by taking advantage on this movement made by the market itself. We alone cannot move the market. That is the reason why instead of chasing the market, we should wait for the market to come to us and take the advantage accordingly. Never ever go against them.

2. Keep Yourself Emotionally Detached From The Market

- The main idea of keeping yourself emotionally detached from the market is to ensure that you could always make the correct assessment and analysis on the market. You see, normally when we do not have any open position floating in the market, we don't care and we look at the market objectively without any bias or prejudice opinion on the market condition. What we see is what we believe is happening. The case is different when you have an open position though. When you're emotionally attached, your judgment will favor your position and no matter what is happening in front of your eyes, you keep on looking for excuses for you to hold that position, especially a losing one. Try to be emotionally detached and you will feel the difference. The best part of this is on the defensive side, in which an objective analysis will either provide you with justification to hold or exit that particular position.

3. Always Analyze the Price Actions First


- This is another simple mistakes that new traders tend to neglect every now and then. Even if you have a proven winning system that wins 90% of the time, still you need to study the current price action itself, especially on the 1hr and 15M chart. Normally price action is in direct relation with market volumes and hence the higher the volume on that respective time frames, the clearer the price action is. My favorite time frame for intraday trading are always the 15M and 1HR candlesticks. In fact, using these two TF without any further indicators are good enough for me to scalp the market every now and then, by using the price action itself. But of course, the point of analyzing the price action on each TF here is to get the best possible entry regardless of what your trading decisions are, long or short. So say it is clear on the daily and 4hr bars that the market is going down, you need to check on the 15M as well as 5M chart on where the price is heading towards at that moment. If it goes up on these two candles, it may be worth for you to wait a little bit until it settles down due to small-bull fighting or due to short-sellers profit taking. Trust me, it's worth to wait.

So, in conclusion... this article is all about developing the correct psychology for trading. If you do not plan to develop this top 10% winning mindset from the beginning, chances are you can hardly survive in this market, blaming the market every now and then.

Remember, trading is a zero-sum game. There is no way for everyone to make money here because not everyone is like you willing to read this article until this line. But if you put enough effort and will power in mastering this market, the reward could be beyond your imaginations.

Just like Manchester United who won the Premier League last year, they didn't have to win every game for them to retain the title. It is the winning mindset and consistent performance in winning most of the games that counts towards becoming a real Champion...

Safe trade...

THE FOREX Micro-BASICS THAT YOU MUST KNOW BEFORE YOU START YOUR TRADING CAREER...

I've been told by some of my close colleagues that most of my postings are too technical for beginners to understand... Is that true? I thought I myself is a beginner... ;) Mmmm... Anyway...

Ok, so now why not we talk about something basic about forex that I personally believe each and every aspiring traders should know, base from my own experience in live trading. I just share the keypoints here but of course, I would recommend you to visit babypips.com if you wish to learn in detail. It's free... really.

Let's begin.

MUST KNOW NO 1 - You must know that FOREX is the biggest market in the world, even after you combine the total turnover of all the Stock Exchange around the globe, still forex is a clear winner with over USD3,000,000,000,000 traded daily (yes, that is trillion with 12 zeros). That is HUGE bro...

MUST KNOW NO 2 - Currencies are traded in pairs. The majors are EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CHF. First currency (ie EUR in EUR/USD) referred as base currency where the second one is referred as counter currency. The value shown for each pair, say bid price for EUR/USD is 1.5000, meaning that every 1 base currency (Euro) equals to 1.5000 of the counter currency (USD). Same goes to any other pair.

MUST KNOW NO 3 - Most of us can access and trade forex because we have leverage offered by brokers. If no leverage is offered, I myself will not have the financial capability to start this trading career. Leverage is the power to control bigger amount of money by using small amount of capital deposited with your broker. You must understand what leverage means so that you can control your risk exposures to the market by not putting a too-big position that minimize your free margin. Read more about forex leverage here.

MUST KNOW NO 4 - To become really good at trading, or perhaps anything, there is NO SHORTCUT. I'm not saying that trading forex is too difficult, but you just have to follow certain typical procedures for you to success. Ask someone who already earned millions from forex and I can guarantee you he would tell you the same thing. Regardless of what or where you might read about trading forex is easy, do not trust them as those claims are DEFINITELY NOT TRUE, especially if you receive emails from so-called the insiders who have put it all together after trading the market for over 20 years bla bla bla... I tell you most (if not all) of these emails are purely B***S**T. Why? I have bought them, try them, no results, email them to ask why and I didn't even get a reply. Even if they reply, they would ask you to check this and that setting and so on, especially when you buy EAs or forex robots. The point is, if you look for quick-rich-method with forex, trading is not for you. Chances are you will get the quick-poor-method instead. If you want to success in trading, just learn & do what the successful traders have done. This is indeed the real holy-grail in trading... work harder but smarter by duplicating the successful traders.

MUST KNOW NO 5 - You must understand both the technical and fundamental aspect of the market. Just learn them one at a time. Don't overwhelmed yourself with too many things so that you could keep your motivation high. Imagine you are driving a car. Though technically the car is designed to take corners at 120km/h (for example), you don't have and prefer not to do it due to other considerations like weather, road conditions and the passengers in your car that may feel unsafe, which could exemplify the fundamental part of your driving. That is why though I am using a lot of technical analysis, I still balance them with market's fundamental and sentiment outlooks prior to taking any trade decision. This doesn't mean that you have to complicate matters, it's just that the better you know who your opponents are and what they are doing, the brighter the chances for you to play and defeat them. To me, trading is just like a big game that one must know all the tips and tricks in order to success. It is not a fair game after all and that is the main reason why most lose their money.

MUST KNOW NO 6 - Risk Management Techniques. Ok, when someone told you that never risk more than 3% of your account equity in any single trade, do you really understand what he is saying? The fact is most of you probably have heard this before but chances are you have no idea on how to translate this 3% into your trading decision and position sizing. Let's take one simple example - a straight forward one. Imagine you have a USD1000 account. 3% of 1000 = 30 dollars. It means you should not risk anything more than 30 dollars per trade with this account size. From this 30 dollars, you should decide at how big is your stop loss is going to be. If you wish to trade with 30 pips as your SL, then simple formula = 30 dollars/ 30 pips = 1 dollar per pip. Considering you have either a mini or micro account, You can have a 10,000 (with mini lot position) position comfortably. But, say if you wish to risk 50 pips instead of 30 as your stop loss, just do the same by dividing 30dollars/50 pips = 60 cents per pip, thus telling you that you can have a 6k micro position. Simple right? Try it... you'd feel safe all the time. What if you wish to risk 10%? Go ahead, it's your money. Only one thing, just like driving, remember that unsafe driving habits is just an accident waiting to happen. If you develop a bad trading habit, chances are you could make money, but it is only a matter of time before you crash your account into flames. Get the point?

MUST KNOW NO 7 - When you're right, stay. When you're wrong, get out. You need to understand the fact that indicators are just helpers for you to take your trading decisions. These indicators are lagging indicators and only show you the trend that has happened. What lies on the next corner, no indicator could tell you exactly what would happen, NONE. The fact is, the market is made of people who are dynamic (keep changing) and somehow unpredictable at times. Most of the time, they are predictable and this is where technical indicators are designed to be used in the trading world, in order to predict the next move base on the patterns develop by the price actions. So, it's just a matter of getting into the right trade and reap the profit or get out from a bad trade before it's too late. Remember what I told you about George Soros? Check out my previous post.

Ok gentlemen. Of course there are many others as well. If you are really a beginner, focus on this 7 first and we'll talk about some advance topic later on this month. As per my normal disclaimer, I am genuinely sharing what I knew to those who have the interest to read and develop themselves into becoming a good trader who make money most of the time.

Just remember that a good forex guru will always tell you that he only provide the means and methods to trade successfuly base on what he knows and his personal experience, but it is you who is ultimately responsible towards your own success or failure as a trader.

Contrarily, if someone ever came to you claiming that he is a forex master, telling you that he has a secret system to beat the market all the time but you have to pay him 100 dollars with money back guarantee, chances are he is lying, or just like a shovel seller. I've seen too many of these "gurus" and I tell you they are no better than any salesmen. They just want to get you to buy their system. Whether you make or lose money, it is your problem, not theirs...

Till then, safe trade for next week.

p/s: By the way, the dollar is showing signs of comeback since the NFP release last Friday. Watch out as I could probably shorting the EU for the rest of the month.

;)

MESTI BACA KALAU SERIUS TENTANG TRADING FOREX ...

Taken from Nogold.com's Forum.... Really worth reading... So decide at which level are you in currently? Think... Are you ready to go all the way to Level 5?

PROSES MENJADI SEORANG TRADER BERJAYA

Tahap 1 ( Unconscious Incompetence )

Ini merupakan langkah pertama yang anda ambil apabila anda mendengar pelbagai perkara menarik berkenaan forex dan bahawa pendapatan seorang trader forex mengalahkan pendapatan seorang pengarah syarikat. Bagi anda, apalah susah sangat untuk trade forex, ia hanya menentukan harga naik atau turun. Lagi pun ada disediakan akaun demo untuk latihan sebelum memulakan trade sebenar. Lalu tanpa berfikir panjang anda pun mendaftar akaun sebenar dan mendepositkan wang ke akaun tersebut bagi memulakan trading sebenar setelah anda dapati trade di akaun demo anda dapat menghasilkan keuntungan yang berlipat-ganda.

Anda mungkin mendapat keuntungan dengan hasil yang menakjubkan di antara 100 ke 200 pip per lot sehari,. Anda percaya bahawa dengan hanya berdasarkan 1 indicator saja, atau bahkan hanya dengan gerak-hati anda dapat menghasilkan keuntungan. Namun itu semua hanyalah nasib saja (beginner luck), pasaran akan mengalahkan anda. Tidak ada trader yang berjaya hanya dengan faktor TUAH/LUCK. Kerugian demi kerugian akan mula menghampiri anda, anda akan cuba bertahan, namun kalau sampai margin habis, siapa yang dapat bertahan??.

Anda sama sekali tidak menyedari bahawa anda tidak mampu untuk trade forex, namun anda tetap mengatakan pada diri anda bahawa yang anda mampu untuk melakukan trading walaupun semua fakta berkata sebaliknya (Persoalannya: Apakah bulan ini profit?, atau Bulan lepas profit?, ataupun Tahun ini profit? ).

Anda tetap mengatakan bahawa anda adalah orang yang hebat, orang yang akan mampu mendapatkan kunci kekayaan dari trading. Dan anda tidak menyedari bahwa 90% trader yang gagal juga mempunyai perasaan seperti itu. Anda tidak mempunyai sistem yang lengkap, anda dikuasai oleh emosi anda, anda selalu cuba mengimbangi perasaan anda jika kerugian dengan MARAH pada pasaran, anda selalu mengambil keuntungan dalam jumlah yang kecil atau membiarkan ia berubah dari keuntungan jadi kerugian karena anda dikuasai oleh sifat TAMAK, adakala anda tidak pernah trading karena anda TAKUT. Anda membiarkan diri anda dikuasai oleh emosi sehingga margin equity anda menderita.

90% orang yang trade forex hanya sampai pada tahap ini, mereka biasanya kehabisan modal, berhenti trade dan menganggap ini semua hanya mimpi buruk belaka. Sebahagian lagi tetap mencari modal dari rakan-rakan/investor dan trade seperti orang gila. dalam sebulan atau dua bulan margin habis lalu mereka mencari mangsa lagi. Ini akan mewujudkan masalah moral yang teruk.

Mereka masih mengaku sebagai trader namun sebenarnya mereka executor. dan biasanya yang moralnya teruk ini dengan senang hati akan mengambil wang dari rakan-rakan dengan menabur pelbagai janji-jani (pulangan lumayan) dan kononnya akan trade sebagai manage fund untuk mereka. Sebahagiannya lagi akan tetap terus seperti biasa dan mengaku trader tetapi tidak pernah trading, mereka biasanya menyalahkan diri mereka sendiri.

Hanya waktu yang menentukan segalanya, sampai bila mereka dapat bertahan di tahap ini dan biasanya waktu selalunya menang. Proses ini selalunya dalam lingkungan waktu SEMINGGU hingga SEBULAN.

90% traders akan terus gagal dan kekal ditahap ini, hanya 10% dari mereka yang sedar ini akan pindah ke Tahap 2.

Tahap 2 ( Conscious Incompetence )

Di tahap ini anda sedar bahawa anda tidak mampu untuk trading, anda tidak memiliki kemampuan untuk trading yang menghasilkan keuntungan secara konsisten. Dan anda tahu penyelesaiannya, Anda sedar bahawa selama di Tahap 1 fikiran anda dikaburkan oleh emosi anda sehingga anda tidak dapat berfikir secara bernas.

Di tahap ini anda akan mencari ‘Holy Grail’ ( sistem yang sempurna/keramat, sistem yang memberikan keuntungan 100% , sistem yang tidak ada kerugian), anda mulai membeli sistem yang ada di internet, anda membaca semua website yang ada tentang trading mulai dari Malaysia hingga ke USA, anda baca semua ebook yang ada, anda praktikkan semua sistem yang anda perolehi, anda dahagakan ilmu seperti seorang pengembara di padang pasir yang dahagakan air minuman.

Pada tahap ini anda akan membaca semua perincian tentang sistem automasi trading/indicator, anda akan test semua indicator yang ada di Metatrader, bahkan anda mungkin akan membuat indikator sendiri ( biasanya gabungan 2 atau 3 indicator), anda akan bermain-main dengan Moving Everage, Fibonnacci lines, Pivot Point, Camarilla Pivot, DeMark, Fractal, MACD, DMI. ADX, Bollinger Bands, dan ratusan indicator yang lain.

Anda tahu bahawa pasaran terlalu rumit untuk dijangka hanya dengan 1 indicator saja. Anda akan mengabungkan kombinasi ideal dari setiap indicator. Anda tahu keunggulan indicator tersebut dan juga kelemahannya. Anda akan mencuba menanda TOP dan BOTTOM di pasaran dan meneka titik perubahan pergerakan pasaran dengan indicator tersebut. Namum anda dapati yang anda terus gagal walaupun anda rasa yang anda telah melakukan yang terbaik.

Anda kini akan cuba bergabung dengan chat room trader dan menanyakan pelbagai pertanyaan di forum-forum kerana bagi anda kalau anda tidak bertanya sekarang maka selamanya anda tidak akan tahu. Anda ingin mengetahui bagaimana trader lain membuat keuntungan walahal anda tidak.. Ketika ini anda akan memikirkan mereka yang mengatakan mendapatkan keuntungan ratusan pip sehari adalah penipu - anda rasa anda tahu semuanya dan telah cuba melakukan apa yang mereka lakukan.

Anda akan jadi seperti seorang remaja - trader yang lebih berpengalaman akan menasihati anda supaya mencari guru yang betul dalam menuntut ilmu tetapi anda degil dan memikirkan yang anda tahu apa yang terbaik - anda meneruskan pembelajaran anda melalui bahan2 diinternet dan overtrade akaun anda walaupun semua orang kata anda gila (anda sesat dalam kebijaksanaan anda - overload information). Kini anda akan mempertimbangkan melanggan isyarat berbayar melalui perkhidmatan SMS dan sebagainya - serta termakan janji-janji manis penyedia khidmat pembelajaran forex yang menjanjikan pelbagai teknik mudah dan cepat untuk berjaya dalam trading tanpa memikirkan jika benarlah ia semudah yang dinyatakan, sudah semestinya ramai yang menjadi jutawan.

Pada akhirnya anda akan mendapatkan 5 hingga 10 sistem yang lengkap dan mencuba mencari sistem mana yang paling sesuai dengan keperibadian/stail anda. Namum di tahap ini anda akan sentiasa kebinggungan kerana mendengar ramai trader yang mendapat keuntungan dari hari ke hari dan anda pula terus kerugian.

Ramai trader yang berada ditahap ini lenyap dalam masa sebulan yang pertama dan jika ada yang mampu bertahan untuk mengharunginya berakhir sekitar 3 bulan.

Dari 10% trader yang ada di tahap ini, hanya sekitar 7% yang berhasil pindah ke Tahap 3.

Tahap 3 (The EUREKA Moment)
Pada akhir Tahap 2, anda akhirnya menyedari pokok permasalahan bukan terletak di sistem. Anda menyedari bahwa anda mampu mendapat keuntungan bahkan jika hanya menggunakan sistem yang mudah seperti Trendline sekali pun tanpa ada indicator lain, jika anda mampu melakukan sedikit kajian melalui pemerhatian yang menyeluruh dan mempelajari pengurusan trading yang baik.

Anda mulai membaca buku tentang psikologi trading, dan mengidentifikasikannya pada diri anda dengan karakter yang dijelaskan dalam buku itu. Akhirnya membawa anda ke Tahap 3 iaitu Tahap Pencerahan.

Proses pencerahan ini membuat otak anda menyedari satu hal yang penting, di dunia ini tidak ada seorang pun yang mampu meneka secara tepat apa yang akan terjadi pada pasaran 30 detik berikutnya. Apa yang anda perlu hanyalah satu sistem trading yang sesuai dengan stail trade anda serta bimbingan seseorang berkenaan pengurusan trading yang sepatutnya sehingga anda dapat cara bertrading yang betul.

Anda mulai menguasai satu sistem trading dan memodifikasinya sehingga sesuai dengan karakter anda, dan mampu memberikan lebih banyak profit dibandingkan sistem yang asli.

Anda mulai trading jika anda tahu kemungkinan untuk untung lebih besar daripada untuk rugi, anda hanya trading jika ada signal dari sistem anda, anda selalu menggunakan stoploss, karena anda tahu stoploss adalah risiko bisnes yang ada dalam dunia trading.
Ketika stoploss anda kena, anda tidak emosi kerana anda tahu tak seorang pun mampu menjangkakannya, dan itu bukan kesalahan anda. Trading berikutnya akan meningkat peluang keuntungan anda kerana anda tahu sistem anda itu sistem yang menguntungkan secara keseluruhannya.

Anda secara tidak langsung menyedari bahawa dalam dunia trading hanya ada satu hal yang penting iaitu konsistensi pada sistem, psikologi trading dan pengurusan wang yang betul. Dan kedisiplinan anda untuk dalam melakukan trading mengurangkan risiko kerugian anda.

Anda mempelajari tentang perlunya ada guru/teman yang dapat memberikan anda bimbingan yang baik dan sokongan berterusan serta hal-hal lainnya. Ia mengingatkan anda suatu ketika yang lalu di mana anda diberi nasihat tersebut dari trader yang berpengalaman dan anda memilih untuk mengendahkannya ketika itu. Kini anda tahu kenapa anda hanya perlukan seorang guru yang baik yang dapat memberikan didikan dan bimbingan yang diperlukan untuk berjaya dalam trading dan bukannya seorang super trader yang menjaja kehebatan sistem/strategi beliau.

Trader akan mengharungi tahap ini sekitar 6 bulan sebelum akhirnya menerima hakikat sebenar bahawa tidak siapa yang mampu meramalkan pergerakan pasaran.
Dari 7% trader yang ada di tahap ini, hanya sekitar 5% yang berhasil maju ke tahap berikutnya.

Tahap 4 ( Conscious Competence )

Sekarang anda hanya trading jika dan hanya jika sistem anda memberi signal. Anda menggunakan stop loss atau cut loss apabila menyedari terdapat signal yang bertentangan kerana anda tahu sistem anda akan lebih banyak memberikan keuntungan daripada kerugian, dan cut loss yang anda lakukan adalah resiko bisnis yaitu max 2% dari account anda.

Di tahap ini anda memulai pandai memperingkatkan target keuntungan trade anda dan setelah anda mampu melakukannya secara konsisten selama beberapa minggu, anda meningkatkan target tersebut ke semaksimum yang boleh. Dan hal itu pada akhirnya mampu anda lakukan.

Anda memang masih harus kerja keras untuk mendapatkannya, memperbaiki sistem anda (dengan menambah 1 atau 2 indicator yang sesuai bagi menyokong system anda), menguasai emosi anda, dan melaksanakan pengurusan wang yang anda pelajari dan pegang. Anda mulai mendapat pengalaman bertrading sebenar.
Tahap ini biasanya berjalan sekitar setahun atau lebih bergantung kepada kemampuan penerimaan seseorang trader itu.

Dari 5% trader hanya sekitar 3% yang sanggup maju ke tahap berikutnya.

Tahap 5 ( Unconscious Competence )

Nah! Sekarang anda telah sampai di Tahap 5, ini adalah tahap yang paling diharapkan oleh seluruh trader di dunia ini, di tahap ini anda mampu trading secara rilek, anda telah menguasai semuanya, anda mampu berdansa mengikut rentak pasaran, kemanapun arah market berjalan, anda telah berada di posisi yang benar, jadi anda tinggal melihat keuntungan anda bergerak dari 2 digit ke 3 digit.

Inilah tahap puncak bagi seorang trader, inilah tahap Utopia/Optim, anda telah menguasai emosi anda dan kini anda trading dengan account yang terus membesar setiap hari dari keuntungan kumulatif yang anda peroleh.

Anda akan jadi bintang di bidang trading, dan orang sekeliling anda akan mendengarkan apa yang anda katakan, anda faham dengan pertanyaan mereka, kerana anda pernah berada diposisi mereka suatu masa dahulu. Anda akan memberikan saranan bagi mereka, namun anda tahu bahwa kebanyakan dari mereka tidak akan mendengarkannya karena mereka masih trader Tahap 1.

Anda tidak akan mempunyai masalah kewangan lagi, anda mampu membeli semua benda yang tersedia untuk dijual, anda mampu membeli sebuah pulau dan trading disana asalkan ada jaringan internet, anda mampu pindah ke hotel 5 bintang, dan menjadi penghuni tetap disana.

Anda mempunyai penghasilan seperti seorang superstar, anda mampu membuat buku sendiri, anda mampu trading dengan margin yang tanpa batas, dan account anda akan berlipat-ganda dari account awal.

Jangka masa untuk sampai ke tahap ini adakalanya bertahun-tahun lamanya. Namum sebenarnya bergantung kepada trader itu sendiri.
Hanya 3% trader yang mampu mencapai tahap ini.
Sekarang anda mampu dengan bangga berkata:

” SAYA SEORANG TRADER “