Tuesday, March 31, 2009
ELECTRICAL ENGINEER IN A GLANCE...
Monday, March 30, 2009
TAKING LOSSES ARE QUITE PAINFUL
You may wonder why I did this in the first place as I always use 50 pips as my SL rather than 100. I tell you this was rather an expensive experiment. No emotional factor here but just a plain stupidity in wishing the market to move at least to my 3rd position in order to recoup some of my losses as I was ready to close all three manually @ 1.4354 before the market closed.
But then, it never happened. And as I wrote before, I was asleep 1 hour before the market closed last Friday.It did touch that point earlier but I wasn't around the PC to do it. By right, I should have placed my TP there.
Lesson is, when you were so much in profit for the week, you tend to be careless in certain ways. Fyi, I had banked in over 600 pips for the week, so I thought it was ok to play around with the market on my profits.
Luckily I put my stop loss at 1.4260 for all 3 positions prior to market closed last Friday and this morning the market opened at 1.4253, 7 pips below my SL. All the positions are automatically closed on the spot.
Altogether I made a loss of -541 pips (-258 + (-182) + (-101). That's a huge figure and definitely a shared lesson for those traders who read this.
I must admit that this is rather painful.
CONCLUSION:
DO NOT MESS AROUND WITH THE MARKET. This is just one real example how terrible things can be when you got it wrong. Should have escaped earlier and joined the crowd instead.
Riding Losses vs Riding Profits - Which One?
Instead of riding profits, we traders are more inclined in riding our losses. The question is why? We knew the later is not the right thing to do, but then we do tend to do it more frequently.
Do not blame yourself on this as this is one of the most prevalent problems for traders, including me. I can summarize the issues on these as follows:
1. Whether you agree or not, the market itself is emotional. It is everlasting and will always be.
2. Though you are part of the market, you have the power to control yourself, not the market. So, why should you become emotional too?
3. Hence, in order to take out the emotional factor, some traders advice me to use robots or Expert Advisor. I told them I had among the best EA that I purchased (not FREE) and so far, almost all of these EAs giving me bad experience.
4. So, another solution is to have a mechanical system that I should follow manually based on signals. I'm using 2 main systems at the moment and it work pretty well, though not 100%.
5. But still, when manual control is in place, we as humans do have the tendency to be un-disciplined and try to outsmart the system by taking earlier decision than we're supposed to.
6. This is the problem with manual trading. You need to have patience & discipline in following the system.
7. But then, the market is so dynamic. Though they are patterns for us to see like Fibonacci and Elliot Wave theory, still we can never be 100% sure. This is where risk management plays its important roles.
8. Since we knew the probability is always 50/50 (either up or down) we do have the tendency to act on our own judgement instead of following the system.
9. And these are the times when we make mistakes.
10. At this point, then only we would realize the importance of following a good trading system, especially the one that we had back-tested and proven record.
12. The reason we don't ride our profit is because we don't want to be greedy and we are too afraid that a winning trade turn to a lose one. Normally you or anyone would have this experience at least a few times.
13. The reason we ride our losses is because we HOPE that it won't go that far against us and will eventually return to our entry point or even beyond for profits.
14. As long as you have a sticky STOP LOSS, I believe it is ok to let the market swing against you as long as you knew what is going on.
15. If you don't have a STOP LOSS, then don't blame the market if they burn down your account. It is ultimately your fault.
16. All these are especially true for new traders.
17. Seasoned traders are more experience, systematic and discipline in their approach, hence giving them a better edge in retaining their profits and make an easy come-back after a series of drawdowns.
My conclusion is - It's your money so do whatever best to grow and protect it from the market force. DO NOT mess around with the market and always go with the trend. Be a GHOST RIDER on the profitable side of the market.
Saturday, March 28, 2009
CAREFUL WITH MARKET SENTIMENTS
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
HOW TO BUILD YOUR BOWLING SKILLS FROM ZERO
AKU TERDENGAR...
Sambil menunggu roti aku sampai, aku ternampak sekumpulan pemuda lebih kurang sebaya aku, dalam 6 orang sedang membelek belek sebuah laptop. Salah seorang sedang bercakap, tersenyum dan begitu yakin dengan apa yang diperkatakannya.
Aku tidak nampak apa yang tertera di skrin laptop tersebut dan tidak berminat untuk mencuri dengar apa yang dibincangkan (maklumlah bukan urusan aku pun), tapi nak dijadikan cerita, orang rumah aku pula yang nampak.
"Yang, i nampak macam graf forex you je", orang rumah aku berbisik.
"Ler ye ke, budak budak ni tengah bincang pasal forex la gamaknya ni", aku berkata perlahan. Sejenak itu aku terus memasang telinga ingin mendengar apa yang diperbincangkan.
Memang sah forex. Aku kagum dengan keyakinan 'brother' yang sedang memberi penerangan sambil beberapa kali menekan butang 'mouse' komputer riba tersebut, aku agak sedang menunjukkan pelbagai jenis graf dan indikator forex yang digunakan.
Dalam banyak banyak perkara yang diperkatakan, cuma satu saja yang aku kurang setuju.
"Senang je Man aku nak trading ni, aku ikut je signal yang ada. Tup tap tup tap, untung duit masyuk dalam akaun"
Wah, dalam hati aku berkata power betul brader ni. Macam main guli je bunyi dia menerangkan forex. Aku yang dah bertahun ni pun kengkadang menggelupur nak betul betul faham pergerakan pasaran. Tapi siapa tahu, mungkin dia memang power, manala tau kot kot aku boleh belajar dengan dia pula.
Setelah beberapa ketika memasang telinga, aku yakin yang brader ni rupanya tengah cari modal nak main forex dari member member dia. Patutlah beria sangat menerangkan. Dari reaksi kawan kawannya pula, aku rasa ada yang bagi brader ni duit suruh mainkan. Tak tau la berapa banyak.
Tapi apa apa pun, aku tak masuk campur. Setakat mendengar, itu pun yg sebenarnya tak patut. Cuma yerla, dah topik perbincangan tu sesuatu yang menarik perhatian, nak buat macam mana kan.
Untuk memendekkan cerita, pandangan aku cuma satu. Kalau baru baru nak belajar forex ni, janganlah pakai duit member untuk dilaburkan seolah olah kita betul-betul mampu untuk menghasilkan keuntungan bagi mereka. Kesian member kalau terkena. Walapun secara teknikalnya mungkin sesuatu yang bijak (sebab kalau hilang pun bukan duit aku), tapi perbuatan ini boleh dan akan merosakkan persahabatan. Maklumla perihal duit ni macam macam boleh jadi.
Lagipun ini bukan kali pertama aku dengar member pakai duit member nak main forex. Kalau sikit takpe, ader tu aku dengar labur sampai puluh puluh ribu suruh kawan uruskan, yang akhirnya ditimpa kerugian.
Punca utama cuma 1 : kurang ilmu. Yg lain tu termasukla kurang sabar, kurang disiplin dan perancangan rapi tentang pengurusan risiko.
Jadi biarlah kurang duit (jangan takde langsung) tapi jangan kurang ilmu. Ada ilmu boleh cari duit. Tapi kalau tiada ilmu, laburlah sebanyak mana pun, lebih lebih seminggu je boleh bertahan. Kalau tak percaya cubalah. Silap silap sehari dah habis.
Aku ni pun masih belajar. Nasihat aku kalau nak 'venture' dunia forex ni, cari sumber bacaan yg baik dan main dahulu akaun demo sampai betul betul faham dan bersedia, kemudian baru mula dengan akaun sebenar menggunakan wang sendiri.
Permulaan tak perlu besar, memadai dengan akaun mini atau mikro dan modal serendah 25 dollar. Broker tu pandai pandai lah cari. Boleh refer kat forum (contoh Nogold.com) kalau nak senang. Cuma kalau tanya aku, aku cadangkan fxdd atau fxcm dan mula dengan USD500 ke USD1000, itu pun kalau ada modal. Kalau tak, USD25 pun boleh dgn akaun fxcm micro. Main 1 pip = 0.10 dulu. Lepas tu sikit sikit besarkan posisi kita berdasarkan amaun ekuiti yang ada.
Yang penting perkasakan teknik kita dalam menawan pips pips yang ada dalam pasaran forex tu. Ada bermacam-macam teknik yang kita kena belajar & cari sendiri. Bila wang sudah berganda, tekniknya sama sahaja cuma kita gandakan lot kita dari mikro ke mini, dan kemudian mini ke standard. Ini yang dinamakan 'calculated risk' atau pengurusan risiko.
Hakikatnya, memang boleh buat duit (dengan banyaknya) melalui forex. Tapi kena ingat, pada masa yang sama kita juga boleh hilang duit (dengan banyaknya) jika tidak berilmu & berhati hati.
Pokok pangkal, tiada jalan singkat. Kalau nak buat, buat betul betul. Kalau nak 'gamble', pergi Genting, jangan main forex. Sebabnya banyak liku liku dan selok belok pergerakan asas (fundamental) dan teknikal pasaran yang perlu difahami sekiranya benar benar ingin berjaya. Kalau betul nak buat duit, jangan labur buta-buta. Kalau dah hilang tu buat sujud syukur je la, jadi beringatlah sebelum terkena. Itu sahaja pesanan ikhlas aku.
Apa apa pun, mamak ni punya roti nan memang best! Buurrrppp. Syukur Alhamdulillah (sambil tangan menyapu perut ;))
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
HOW TO PREDICT THE PRICE MOVEMENT?
1. Calculate the daily range movement. Normally if it is still below 100 pips range, the movement will likely to continue. Otherwise when it stops, it could be a reversal and major corrections. Watch out the 4 hours and 1 hour candlestick interval as confirmation.
2. Be particular with the daily pivot, resistance x3 and supports x3. These lines are the easiest way to plan for entries & exits. Hence if the current movement is yet to reach any of these lines, the best is to stay out.
3. Instead of trying to predict reversals (or picking top or bottoms), join the trend with minimum risk at stakes. Use the 5 minute candlestcik to time your entry well. Enter when there is a sign that market is start buying again (for bullish trend).
3rd fundamental is to analyse the daily news, economic calendars, stocks, crude & gold prices as well as sentiment index readings (available at www.fxcm.com/forex-news-software-exchange.jsp). Sounds too much right? It isn't that complicated actually.
In simple words, you need to emphatize the market, feel it, look at the chart and try to understand what the majorities are doing. If you can't do the above, easiest way is to study the daily bias (up or down) and the 4hr candlestick. These 2 alone speaks for the majority.
The 4th fundamental is to look at the 5 majors and see whether the movement is about USD, JPY, CHF, GBP or EUR. Just check the news. Weakness or strength in dollars, swiss franc, sterling, yen or euro has significant difference in terms of movement correlation. So be extra careful not to blindly buy the EUR/USD pair when you see GBP/USD pair price is jumping up.
Hence, back to the topic on predicting price movement, my conclusions are:
1. There is no hard and fast rules in predicting the price movement precisely. Use various fundamental & technical indicators as your best bet. Beware, surprise do happen at times.
2. Trend is your friend, going against is crazy but joining blindly is lazy. Not all friends are
really friends. At times, friends do trap you. So be extra careful. Analyse the RSI and Stochastic for any Overbought or Oversold signs.
3. Watch out the daily pivot, resistance and support as well as the Daily and 4 hours bias (up or down). These are among the easiest indicators on what's next.
4*. Trading is a life lesson. If you are serious about trading, you must learn and take an educated approach. There are no shortcuts in becoming successful in anything.
Finally, I like to use the word "taking advantage" on the market movement for my trades since normally I do not bias to either side. Both ways are profitable as long as I get it right.
p/s: At times, I always smile to myself, feeling greed everytime I exit a trade, taking half of my TP, and later on looking at the price moving to my original TP, and even went another 100 pips above. (talking about buying). Last time when I sticked to my TP, the market reverse and I lost the trade. So, how? ;))
Btw today is another great day. 177 pips from 11 trades. All winning ! Took advantage on the GU and EU movements.
copyright Ó 2009 by shahrul nizam hussin
Monday, March 23, 2009
Why Do Traders Get Emotional?
BEWARE - DO IT AND YOU'LL DOOM
2. Losing patience & perspective in situation
3. Rushing for revenge trading
4. Complacent with account size and recent winning streaks
5. Blow up everything in single day or trade
6. Did not plan the what if's
7. Too FEAR or too GREEDY
WHAT MATTERS ?
1. Keep things in perspective - steady - cool - wait
2. Trade like when you are having USD100 in accounts
3. Be AFRAID. Be very afraid. Admit that you're WRONG, when you're WRONG.
4. Always say ; I can control myself… but not the market…
5. MAKE MONEY - per day and per week target basis
6. STEADY equity growth
7. Prior to opening any position, Visualize it. What are the chances & WHAT IF ?
8. SELF CONTROL - Do not ENTER when you feel not to.
9. Play the PSP when waiting for ENTRY chances
10. RIDING ON THE profitable SIDE OF THE MARKET
In Summary... IT'S ALL ABOUT SELF CONTROL...
If you can't have this within you, then use EA's (ie Robots)... one of the best now is FAPTurbo... even that I do not trust it 100%. I still prefer manual trade ;)
All the BEST to your tradings.
copyright © 2009 by shahrul nizam hussin
What's Going On with Malaysian's Politic Today?
2. What should the politicians do?
Win the people's heart and you shall have their undivided support, too.
Sincerely written by: Shahrul Nizam Hussin
Sunday, March 22, 2009
What Did I Do Correctly when I am Making PROFIT?
SIMPLE KEYS TO MAKING PROFIT in FOREX
The ways to generate profit is definitely to trade correctly & profitably all the time. Easier said than done, the thing is like in any sports or games, it is impossible to win all the time, every time.
In tennis, look at Roger Federer for example. He doesn’t need to ace every serve in order to have a career gain of over USD44 million. It’s all about playing it smart and winning the whole battle at the end of the day that matters.
Same applied to us as traders, the KEYs to winning trades consistently is to apply the right principles, techniques and indicators in justifying our decision to enter a trade. Since we could not make it 100% correct all the time, this is where good money management plays its role in protecting our equity in case we're wrong.
So, Rule #1; TIMING is the key. You have to look at the time for entry especially the Daily bias, 4H, 1H, 15M and even 5M for a perfect entry setup decision. Always stick to the maintrend though there are a few exceptions that I shall discuss later.
Prior to entry, you must always question whether it is a good setup or otherwise. What do the charts pattern and price actions trying to tell you? Is the market moving sideways, channelling or trending? Read the reports from various sources to confirm your understanding. Is there any major NEWS coming out soon?
Either way trading is a game of probability. You take your bet base on what the market will likely be doing since going against them is definitely unwise. It is not an exact science where A plus B will always equal to C. It is an art, just like a lady that you should carefully learn, appreciate and comprehend. It takes time for sure. But with proper skills, techniques and respect, you shall succeed.Other than timing, the next key is Rule#2 : RISK MANAGEMENT, or so called money management. The only questions thate relate to this will always be:
1. How much to risk for this single trade? (ie 5%, 3% or 1% of my equity, than translate them into pips SL)
2. What is the best position size to take for this trade? (ie 10 std lots, 5 std lots, 1 std lots or 1 mini lot)
3. What is my profit target? (ie 200 pips)
Some people put this thing first on top of timing but the way I see it, there is no point talking about accepting minimum losses when you keep on losing. My argument is, though you may manage your risk pretty well by putting only a tiny amount of capital in any trade, you still loose substantially if you keep on losing.
Hence, you need both or you will just end up as bad as those gamblers who put everything at stakes.
In summary, the fundamental keys to generate profit in forex trading is:
TIMING (SETUP : ENTRY : EXIT) + GOOD RISK MANAGEMENT = CONSISTENT PROFITS
copyright Ó 2009 by shahrul nizam hussin
Saturday, March 21, 2009
THE 3 GOOD THINGS ABOUT…
1. Being An Electrical Engineer
- You get the chance to fully understand how electricity is generated, transmitted and distributed
- Learn NOT to mess around with something that you can’t visually see
- Chances to make more money and earn higher credibility by enhancing your competency to Professional Engineer and Competent Engineer.
2. Being A Bowling Player
- Appreciate & understand the importance of Focus & Strong Mental Games
- Chances to compete with the best Bowlers in Malaysia – even the Malaysian Players ;)
- Release your stress by visualizing the pins as your problems (e.g. Your Boss)
3. Being A FOREX Trader
- Improve heart strength in Taking Losses (huhu..), Patience & Self Discipline
- Making more money and being humble at the same time knowing the facts that the market is so powerful to be denied.
- Ability to develop your Sixth Sense in a way to balance both technical and fundamental approach. The 6th sense tells you when to and not to proceed with any trade, especially when whipsaw occurs.
4. Being A Constant Reader (at least 1 new book a month)
- The easiest way to gain knowledge endlessly
- Leaders are Readers. Read and you shall lead.
- Continuous exposures to new ideas and technologies. I even read the bowling books!
5. Being A Husband
- Improved mutual understanding, communication skills as well as learning how to stay cool & patience – 24/7
- A dedicated place to be romantic where love should be channelled
- Apart from work, this is another platform to prove your productivity level
- Having a podium where you can reward your loved ones
- Sense of being importance when everything needs your approval
- A place to improve your coaching skills and to fill up the gaps on whatever
- Expand your views on different cultures by exploring the world & later learn to appreciate your home soil
- You get more points for your Enrich.
- Travel in Business Class (sometimes 1st class due to free upgrade) when it is business trip.
ARE YOU A RISK TAKER?
Life is a risk and no matter where we go or what we do, there are always risks involved. Even walking in a bathroom is much riskier than crossing a road with heavy traffic. Not to mention the different risks that you have by living in one place compared to another.
The question is, how strong and how brave we are in taking risks? Do we have a choice?
Working in an oil refinery has always taught me that safety is not something that can be compromised. The best mantra of all, written in every work permit and safety signage is “No work is so urgent that we cannot take time to do it safely”.
And it’s true. If there is anyone who has the guts to argue this with the safety personnel, the solution is only one; GET OUT & DON’T COME BACK!
Looking at the risk behaviours of people or so-called risk appetite in trading, it makes me wonder what criteria that contributes towards such and such brave act in different persons in doing things. Shouldn’t we play it safe all the time? Take time to do it slow and safely so that no one get hurt.
The answer is very subjective and it is you to define which level of risk that is comfortable to you. In fact in business, it is an authentic believes that you’d gain nothing if you don’t take risk. A spineless businessman will never make it big time.
Talking about risk definition, some people dare to do skydiving but not speed racing. Some has the guts to invest millions in new business but no guts in trying the bungee jumping and so on. The list is indeed endless.
One of my best idols is our former Premier, Tun Dr Mahathir. If he didn’t have the guts in taking calculated risks in doing things for the country, I do not think we are where we are today. Even that, there are still plenty to be done, yet.
In short, certain things that we dare to do is not necessarily easy for others to take, regardless of what venture it is. Too much risk or no risks at all will twist things to dangerous or too boring to be endeavoured, hence killing the interest in doing it. But surely, when there is zero risk involved, the chances of safety is close to 100%.
Personally, I love risks as risks keep me alert all the time. Being too comfortable and satisified with what I have is simply not me. Sometimes I did take stupid risks, unintentionally. But whatever that didn't kill me will make me stronger.
My advice is simple:
Take risks but do not take stupid risk. You must consider the consequences. The pain is sometimes too much to take. Hence, it pays to be extra careful in taking risks.
HOW COME? : TYPICAL FX Q&A
COPYRIGHT Ó 2009 BY SHAHRUL NIZAM HUSSIN
Q1 : How come every time I opened a position I am already losing money?
A1 : This is due to spread imposed by Brokers
Q2 : How come I always entered wrongly?
A2 : Lack of patience and analysis could be the main keys. Speculating wrongly could be another factor.
Q3 : How come I always quit a profitable trade too early?
A3 : You are afraid that your winning trade could turn to a loser if you don’t act fast enough
Q4 : How come I lost too much money with FOREX?
A4 : You don’t have a sound money management system, probably risking more than 3% in each of your trade.
Q5 : How come I always ride a losing trade, instead of quitting and come back later?
A5 : Most of the time, it is due to you cannot take small losses and the habit of always adjusting your stop loss. Fighting the market is not a wise decision. You are being irrational and losing control on your single trade, resulting in a complete wipe out of your overall account. Most probably you don’t have a trading plan and system at all. Wishful thinking is the main culprit too.
Q6 : How come I always opened a position every time I sit in front of my trading station?
A7 : You are a jumper and does not have the discipline and patience to wait for the best moment to enter.
Q7 : How come the market hardly had a breakout when I plan to swing trade my position?
A7 : It is not meant to be and you are wishing for the market to move to your desired direction whereas the market thinks otherwise. Stay patience, it will come.
Q8 : How come the price never move in a straight line?
A8 : It never will. Buying and selling will always keep the pair volatile, big or little. There are always buyers and sellers in this market.
Q9 : How come small traders always lose money?
A9 : This is not true. Big time traders lose money too, with even bigger amount. To make money in FOREX regardless of your account size, we should take ADVANTAGE of the price movement instead of wishing the price to move in our favour. There is no one who can control the market hand. It moves whenever and wherever it wants – regardless what the report says. Respect the market and do not mess with it. They have no mercy on your account, at all.
Q10 : How come I always miss the BIG MOVE?
A10 : This is not your fault as market breakouts could happen at any time, even during the early Asian Session. This is the advantage of full time traders compared to those who trade on part time basis. Anyhow, you must understand and plan your trade accordingly as on occasional basis, market made a big move with a reason, and you have to find out why. Most of the time, it is probably due to major economic data release, speculation or statement issued by certain respective countries especially Japan, UK, Europe and United States of America.
Q11 : How come it is not as easy as I thought and told to be?
A11 : Making easy money with forex is a propaganda so that more and more green traders come to the market with new and big money. Technically speaking, the trading operation itself is easy as it only involves BUY, SELL and CLOSE, unlike operating any other machine. Some even use EA’s or a robot that is operated simply with a single click of a mouse. Anyhow, the truth is otherwise. Simply buying and selling a pair blindly is a sure way to clean your account. You must take an educated approach to trading in order to survive and make consistent profit in the long run. Losses are inevitable but controlling your losses when you get it wrong is the utmost importance for successful trading.
Q12 : How come not everyone can make money in this market?
A12 : This is a very good question. You must understand the concept of zero sum game. It is either you take the money away from the market, or you giving YOUR MONEY to the market, hence creating an equal balance in the market equity. The only fair thing that you have is control over this matter by trading wisely. The way I look at it is there is no such thing like everyone can make money in this market. That is why I do tell my students that you cannot be averaged to become a consistent winner. Life itself is not fair, so as trading. Imagine a war without a winner, a football game with a draw result, or a CEO who earns as much as his cleaner. It is not going to happen. There is and will always be one Cristiano Ronaldo in the football world. If all footballers in the world could play as good as him, then FIFA will be having trouble in deciding who deserve the footballer of year award. But as a smart trader, you have a choice whether to make or lose money by taking an ingenious approach, education, skills and experience by constantly learning.
Mandatory Skills To Become...
- Religion & Attitude
2. A Good Father
- Academic & Negotiation
3. A Good Husband
- Loving & Buying Power
4. A Good Son & Son-In-Law
- Respect and Solidarity
5. A Good Engineer
- Sensible & Vocal
6. A Good Bowler
- Focus & Fighting Spirit
7. A Good Trader
- Patience & Discipline
We can always elaborate these points for sure, but those are the keywords.
HOPE IS GOOD BUT...
Looking at the reality of hoping, I wonder if there is any difference whether we hope or not? Will hope affect the outcomes of certain results or events? If the answer is none, then why do we hope? The key is because it is a universal trait of human being that even a 5 year old kid knew what hope is all about. (ie hoping papa will buy me a playstation for birthday etc).
Hence if we look hope from the trading perspective, frankly speaking H-O-P-E is the most unwanted four letter words that we should not apply in trading.
Why? There are at least 7 reasons that I could recall.
1. Hope kills. The more you hope the more money you’d lose and the more emotional you become.
In short, hope will keep you frustrated when it is not happening. So, don’t hope.
The only thing that good about hope is it keeps your dream alive, well at least within your imagination. It may happen and it may not. At times, it is inevitable to hope when there is nothing else you could do. It is more to religious slant that turns one to become more humble and subservient to his God.
Anyhow from trading perspective, instead of hoping, you should trade with open eyes. Digest and analyse the market data that are available to you. After doing all that you can, then only you should consider taking informed decision whether to take the trade, wait or otherwise.
Finally, you should decide base on facts and the reality that if anything goes wrong, you can and probably have swallow all the paints upfront simply by understanding the consequences of your trading decision. Good risk management as well as patience in getting the right entry are all it takes in getting profitable trades. Not HOPE.
All the best to your trading!