This video is not produced by me... but rather a reknowned economic expert whom is worth for you to pay attention to. Thanks Sanusi for pointing this out... it is scary indeed...
Just click here.
Have A Nice Day
Monday, March 7, 2011
Friday, February 25, 2011
MY LATEST RULES OF ENTRY...
I've been pretty busy lately due to some ongoing works and personal matters that need to be resolved. Anyway, just to share some of my written rules of trading that I apply personally whenever I am in front of my trading screens... it works so well for me...
1. NO MATTER WHAT... DO NOT ENTER THE MARKET BLINDLY... WE’RE SNIPING HERE SO DON’T WASTE YOUR BULLETS OR BE TRAPPED UNNECESSARILY. THE ENEMIES ARE SMART!
2. Check out Action Forex. Get the general ideas on what’s going on fundamentally.
3. Mark up the key technical levels mentioned in action fx on the trading whiteboard.
4. Check the Bloomberg for any potential breaking news.
5. Later, checkout the weekly and daily economic news release. What and when will be the high volume trading hours probability. Plan.
6. Then technically, check the Fibonacci levels on pairs that you see tradable. Check level on all timeframes from 4 hrs, Daily to Weekly.
7. Analyse the price action on each pair for the day. BULLISH, BEARISH OR SIDEWAYS?
8. What is the current direction and range so far?
9. Main pairs would be EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.
10. Crosses would be EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY.
11. Remaining two’s are USD/JPY and USD/CAD.
12. NOT SURE? Demo trade first and feel the market’s psychology. Watch the 15EMAs closely.
13. Generally we have equal buyers vs sellers, buyers dominance or sellers dominance.
14. LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE. See what is happening and make a choice. Mark it up on your whiteboard. Buy/Sell ONLY at these critical lines – pivot, support, resistance and MA.
15. REMINDER : Normally it is not easy for an established trend to change direction, but you must time your entry and exit accordingly.
16. DO NOT BE TOO CONFIDENT OR TOO FEAR IN TAKING DECISIONS.
17. POSITION ACCORDINGLY BASE ON CALCULATED SAFETY MEASURES.
18. HOW MUCH ARE YOU WILLING TO LOSE IN CASE IF YOU’RE WRONG? ONLY TAKE CALCULATED RISKS...
19. THINK...
20. ACCOUNT PROTECTION IS THE MAIN OBJECTIVE IN EVERY SINGLE TRADE.
21. WHEN YOU ARE WRONG, GET OUT… OR AT LEAST STICK TO THE DTR (Dollar To Risk) DECIDED EARLIER.
Have A Nice Weekend... ;)
1. NO MATTER WHAT... DO NOT ENTER THE MARKET BLINDLY... WE’RE SNIPING HERE SO DON’T WASTE YOUR BULLETS OR BE TRAPPED UNNECESSARILY. THE ENEMIES ARE SMART!
2. Check out Action Forex. Get the general ideas on what’s going on fundamentally.
3. Mark up the key technical levels mentioned in action fx on the trading whiteboard.
4. Check the Bloomberg for any potential breaking news.
5. Later, checkout the weekly and daily economic news release. What and when will be the high volume trading hours probability. Plan.
6. Then technically, check the Fibonacci levels on pairs that you see tradable. Check level on all timeframes from 4 hrs, Daily to Weekly.
7. Analyse the price action on each pair for the day. BULLISH, BEARISH OR SIDEWAYS?
8. What is the current direction and range so far?
9. Main pairs would be EUR/USD, GBP/USD and AUD/USD.
10. Crosses would be EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY and AUD/JPY.
11. Remaining two’s are USD/JPY and USD/CAD.
12. NOT SURE? Demo trade first and feel the market’s psychology. Watch the 15EMAs closely.
13. Generally we have equal buyers vs sellers, buyers dominance or sellers dominance.
14. LOOK AT THE BIG PICTURE. See what is happening and make a choice. Mark it up on your whiteboard. Buy/Sell ONLY at these critical lines – pivot, support, resistance and MA.
15. REMINDER : Normally it is not easy for an established trend to change direction, but you must time your entry and exit accordingly.
16. DO NOT BE TOO CONFIDENT OR TOO FEAR IN TAKING DECISIONS.
17. POSITION ACCORDINGLY BASE ON CALCULATED SAFETY MEASURES.
18. HOW MUCH ARE YOU WILLING TO LOSE IN CASE IF YOU’RE WRONG? ONLY TAKE CALCULATED RISKS...
19. THINK...
20. ACCOUNT PROTECTION IS THE MAIN OBJECTIVE IN EVERY SINGLE TRADE.
21. WHEN YOU ARE WRONG, GET OUT… OR AT LEAST STICK TO THE DTR (Dollar To Risk) DECIDED EARLIER.
Have A Nice Weekend... ;)
Wednesday, January 5, 2011
HAVE I GRADUATED FROM THE FOREX SCHOOL?
I guess not, still plenty to learn for sure... and before I forget, Happy belated New Year 2011 to everyone who is reading this...
There's nothing much to write actually on my 1st post for 2011. But frankly speaking, I am really considering my options to either retire early or changing my careers within this coming months, though not really sure which direction is the best for now.
2010 was full of challenges and some of them are still here for me to face and manage. I am indeed in a mid-career crisis at the moment that requires deeper thinking and considerations before any major decision could be taken.
As far as my forex is concern, I do believe that I deserve a degree after doing it almost every day for the past 3 years, or perhaps at least an advance diploma. This year onwards, I am probably pursuing my master degree already and maybe in the next 5 years, perhaps I deserve a PhD by the time I could have and manage a 6 figure account.
Anyway, most importantly is to make money to survive and prosper. This is a business after all so I should cut all the nonsense and focus on what I need to do to become an even better trader.
As I always said and mentioned repeatedly, this thing requires a lot of patience and discipline in order to succeed. Nothing comes easy for sure but it does become easier as you cruise along with strong patience and believe.The key words here are continuous learning and never give up...
Making Money vs Losing Money... either way it has its own implication. When you make money, you feel like angels, getting it right most of the time, happy and a little bit greedy here and there as you never felt enough... but when you loose money, you learn to appreciate the market better, the importance of proper risk management and ways to control yourself from knocking your head to the wall.
Both have its pros and cons but of course... the consequences of losing money could be greater as not all of us have the strength to take such knocks.
Last but not least... have I graduated from the forex school? I don't think so as learning is always a continuous process. Once you feel complacent about the skills and experiences that you already gained, you will become lazy and careless in which these will be the major killers to the potential growth.
For sure I am more experienced now than 3 years ago but still... the future remains a mystery... I can plan but the rest, I have to leave it to the Creator to decide... perhaps my 1st million will come from here, or perhaps from something else that I never thought about... Either way, I don't mind as long as it comes from a Halal source...
Have a Blessing New Year Guys & Gals... ;)
There's nothing much to write actually on my 1st post for 2011. But frankly speaking, I am really considering my options to either retire early or changing my careers within this coming months, though not really sure which direction is the best for now.
2010 was full of challenges and some of them are still here for me to face and manage. I am indeed in a mid-career crisis at the moment that requires deeper thinking and considerations before any major decision could be taken.
As far as my forex is concern, I do believe that I deserve a degree after doing it almost every day for the past 3 years, or perhaps at least an advance diploma. This year onwards, I am probably pursuing my master degree already and maybe in the next 5 years, perhaps I deserve a PhD by the time I could have and manage a 6 figure account.
Anyway, most importantly is to make money to survive and prosper. This is a business after all so I should cut all the nonsense and focus on what I need to do to become an even better trader.
As I always said and mentioned repeatedly, this thing requires a lot of patience and discipline in order to succeed. Nothing comes easy for sure but it does become easier as you cruise along with strong patience and believe.The key words here are continuous learning and never give up...
Making Money vs Losing Money... either way it has its own implication. When you make money, you feel like angels, getting it right most of the time, happy and a little bit greedy here and there as you never felt enough... but when you loose money, you learn to appreciate the market better, the importance of proper risk management and ways to control yourself from knocking your head to the wall.
Both have its pros and cons but of course... the consequences of losing money could be greater as not all of us have the strength to take such knocks.
Last but not least... have I graduated from the forex school? I don't think so as learning is always a continuous process. Once you feel complacent about the skills and experiences that you already gained, you will become lazy and careless in which these will be the major killers to the potential growth.
For sure I am more experienced now than 3 years ago but still... the future remains a mystery... I can plan but the rest, I have to leave it to the Creator to decide... perhaps my 1st million will come from here, or perhaps from something else that I never thought about... Either way, I don't mind as long as it comes from a Halal source...
Have a Blessing New Year Guys & Gals... ;)
Thursday, December 16, 2010
FOREX... 15 THINGS THAT YOU MUST UNDERSTAND BEFORE YOU START...
1. RISK INVOLVED
After 3 years of doing this, I strongly believe that this should be the utmost importance of all. Without it, trust me, your account is just like a time-bomb. A matter of when rather than how it will burn out. Of course you may not appreciate this at the beginning of your trading journey, but sooner or later you will know that trading successfully is all about prudent risk management. Without it, like I said before, all you need is a single mistake to burn out everything. One simple mistake... that's all. To experience this, just open a real account, regardless of how much you deposited in, risk everything in one single trade and hang-on to your losing position... just see what happen. KAABOOM! (though you may profited initially for the first few trades)
2. IT'S NOT A "GET RICH QUICK SCHEME"
Most (new) traders treat trading like a big casino where they can dump their hard-earned cash and turn it into a million dollar within 3 months. You may get lucky at times, but your luck will definitely running out sooner or later. Try as you may, but I can guarantee that you can never become rich quickly by trading. It takes time to become successful at anything.
3. TECHNICAL INDICATORS
These are the real instrument that you MUST understand before you trade. Regardless of what system or indicators that you choose to buy or apply, just make sure that you thoroughly understand what the indicators are telling, I mean the market behaviors in particular. There are just too many hypes out there telling you the short cuts of trading. Trading is pretty simple actually but to make it even simpler by simply buying or selling currency pairs base 100% of signals are very very risky indeed. Why, because there is no system that can fit 100% on every market's condition. Each system has its own advantages vs disadvantages.
4. FUNDAMENTAL INDICATORS
Just like technical, fundamental indicators have its own equal share on the market. Some traders even rely 100% on fundamental rather than technical in their trading decision. Talking about fundamental though, to me anything that creates fear or greed is something that worth for you to put your attention on. Why? Because we're all human. We have fear and greed and learning how to control and manipulate these two factors are something that is worthwhile to our trading decision. Fundamental includes political, geological and economic news, calendar as well as economic facts and figures. Easy said, anything that the country or bank leaders are doing has its own effect on the market. My point is, just pay attention and understand the sentiment accordingly.
5. FOREX TERMS AND JARGONS
Though these terms do not guarantee your profit but somehow you need to know them. Otherwise how do you call yourself a trader when you are blurred when people are talking about margin, leverage, spread and all those forex jargons? Got the point? You don't need to remember all but if you can come to a point when you can fully comprehend a report talking about risk aversion versus risk appetite, then you should be ok.
6. WHAT TYPE OF TRADERS ARE YOU?
Well, this is definitely going to take you some times before you can really figure it out. Are you a scalper or a swinger? What type of risk appetite that you have within you? Are you a wolf, a ship, a bear or what? Try to know and understand yourself first.
7. THE IMPORTANCE OF DEMO ACCOUNT
Guys & Ladies, demo account is a practise account that is crash-proof because you don't have real money in it. It is important though because it's like a driving range if you compare it to golf... A place where you start learning how to swing, hit the ball cleanly and drive it to distance. You need to keep your demo account alive regardless of whether you have a live account or not. This is the place where you check your strategy, counter check your temptation and so on. Yes it is easy to play demo, but if you want to listen to my advice, treat the demo like real and treat the real like demo... and tell me the result... That is one of my little secret indeed...
8. PSYCHOLOGICAL AND EMOTIONAL CONTROL
Are you a balanced person? If you can't control your temper, chances are you can't become a good trader. You need to be very calm, relax and steady during trading or otherwise most of your trading decision would be based on impulsiveness rather than logical and technical justification.
9. WHAT DRIVES THE MARKET?
The point here is to understand that the main driver of the pair prices (ie USD/JPY @ 84.00) are people. People BUY and people SELL regardless of where they came from, banks, institutional, retail etc. The underlying factors of buying vs selling is all depending on FEAR vs GREED... in which people buy when they feel optimist that the price will go up, and sell when they believe that the price will go down. Either way, no one is 100% correct because majority wins. Understand this first before you start learning in detail about Advance candlesticks, Ichimoku, Rising Star etc etc which to me, is less important. This is the most basic element and yet so many fail to appreciate the concept.
10. THE MARKET HOURS AND VOLUMES
The 5 sessions in a day that you need to pay attention to are Sydney, Tokyo, Dubai, London and New York. Normally what matters are mainly London across New York hours but I include Dubai as well as there are surprises coming from the Middle East countries that are worth for you to pay attention as well. Watch the volumes as well as this is a direct indicator of volatility on price actions that you may take advantage of. Compare these hours to your local time and mark them accordingly. The point here is that not all hours are tradable especially the Asian Session where normally volumes are low and price actions are pretty static.
11. HOW TO MAKE ENTRY DECISION?
Have a system or perhaps buy one if you need to. Study and understand how the system works and follow it dilligently. Base on experience, it is easier and more accurate to make a trade decision base on technical indicators rather than fundamental but you need to blend it well with market hours, news and fundamental aspects of the overall market sentiment. Only enter when you have no reason not to enter. If you are 50/50, either stay out or cut your risk factor to 50% than normal...
12. LEARN TO OBSERVE AND DO NOTHING BUT WATCH
Yes, this is all about patience and discipline. The reason behind this is simply to train yourself from being impulsive in making your entry decision. Definitely it is not easy but if you can master this one, the rest are just piece of cakes. Trust me, you will appreciate the market better simply by watching and analysing what is happening in the market.
13. YOUR TRADING HOURS
Determine your best trading hours in a particular day or week. If you have a family to take care of, just like me, you can't take them for granted by simply sitting in front of your trading station all day long. You need to go out and plan your time accordingly. Plan in advance so that you can minimise distractions during your trading hours... but of course... stay flexible.
14. TRADING TOOLS AND FACILITIES
A notebook, pc and a desk should be sufficient enough to start but somehow are not sufficient for you to make good decision with your entries. More screens will give you better perspective on the market's condition, especially the price actions on several inter-related pairs that you plan to trade. Invest a bit because it's worth it... perhaps one item at a time.
15. MARKET CONDITION
Ranging, Trending and Breaking. The 3 basic types of market movement. Each has its own advantages and disadvantages and I don't plan to elaborate them any further here. 60% of the time, the market is always ranging. 30% trending either bullish or bearish and 10% breaking out, either up or down. Learn how to identify market mode and take advantage accordingly. That's all. You may need different type of strategy for different type of market's condition.
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All in all, all these may sound too complicated for you especially if you are a complete beginner.
The fact is... IT IS.
But trust me, these things listed above are do-able and master-able, meaning that you too can and will grab the concepts provided you give enough time for yourself to learn.
I tried my best to simplify them. Though trading wise you don't actually need to remember all of these elements, but the fact is you need to know them, one at a time and master the ideas in a pre-determined period of time, say 6 months to 3 years for example.
Just imagine a pilot and a passenger of a Boeing 747. Are they equal in particular? Yes they do in terms of humanity and perhaps physical too. But thinking about the skills, training, experience, competency and responsibility involved... I believe no question is asked on who's who.
The pilots are lesser than 10% from the passengers and yet they are the one who makes money rather than the passengers. Does this sound familiar from trading perspective?
So ask yourself and if you get my point, unless you have the intention to become a pilot in this trading arena which is not easy from the beginning, you better spend your money somewhere else rather than keep on paying the pilots and hoping that someday you will be able to fly the Boeing by yourself just like you did in your PS3 or X-Box consoles.
Trust me, it's not gonna happen unless you go to a pilot school.
Thursday, November 18, 2010
HOW TO TIME YOUR ENTRY WELL... FOR SCALPERS...
1. First and foremost, avoid the Asian Session or at least minimise your trading activity. Market volume is particularly low during most Asian Sessions.
2. Trade the London Session only. This session is always the best as it presents a whole bundle of opportunities to scalp either way using a smaller time-frame, in which in this case I always prefer the 15 minutes.
3. Be particularly aware of the 1 hour interval, followed by 15 minutes and so on. Minimise your entry anything in between. I personally do not prefer or recommend the M1 timeframe but there are scalpers using this TF for sure.
4. Check the economic news release time for the day. Either you enter 15 minutes before or after the news or just stay out. Never be caught unaware... It's costly.
5. Watch and mark the daily top and bottom plus previous day top and bottom as well as the week's high and low. These levels are vital for scalpers in order to time your entry particularly during a directionless market.
6. Scalpers should use more technical indicators rather than fundamental.
7. Set your trading plan upfront and stick to the plan, ie 100 pips (ie 10 pips x 10 trades) or 100 dollars. What is your target/aim for the day. Go for it...
8. Study the market condition first. Not all days are good for you to scalp. If the market is not moving, just stay out... don't put blind hope unless you have a technical reason to hold on to your position.
9. Choose your tradable pair accordingly. Do not trade all the pairs or open too many positions that you yourself start to forget about.
10. Above all, always apply strict money management rules. You will be wrong at times for sure but prudent money management strategy will protect your account. Of course this is easy said than done...
Last but not least, set your TP and SL accordingly, normally in a close range in which from my point of view, scalpers shall focus more on entry accuracy rather than aiming for a home-run in each trade.
It's a bit tedious but statistically, it has shown that scalping is more exciting and profitable to me.
Have A Nice Day.
2. Trade the London Session only. This session is always the best as it presents a whole bundle of opportunities to scalp either way using a smaller time-frame, in which in this case I always prefer the 15 minutes.
3. Be particularly aware of the 1 hour interval, followed by 15 minutes and so on. Minimise your entry anything in between. I personally do not prefer or recommend the M1 timeframe but there are scalpers using this TF for sure.
4. Check the economic news release time for the day. Either you enter 15 minutes before or after the news or just stay out. Never be caught unaware... It's costly.
5. Watch and mark the daily top and bottom plus previous day top and bottom as well as the week's high and low. These levels are vital for scalpers in order to time your entry particularly during a directionless market.
6. Scalpers should use more technical indicators rather than fundamental.
7. Set your trading plan upfront and stick to the plan, ie 100 pips (ie 10 pips x 10 trades) or 100 dollars. What is your target/aim for the day. Go for it...
8. Study the market condition first. Not all days are good for you to scalp. If the market is not moving, just stay out... don't put blind hope unless you have a technical reason to hold on to your position.
9. Choose your tradable pair accordingly. Do not trade all the pairs or open too many positions that you yourself start to forget about.
10. Above all, always apply strict money management rules. You will be wrong at times for sure but prudent money management strategy will protect your account. Of course this is easy said than done...
Last but not least, set your TP and SL accordingly, normally in a close range in which from my point of view, scalpers shall focus more on entry accuracy rather than aiming for a home-run in each trade.
It's a bit tedious but statistically, it has shown that scalping is more exciting and profitable to me.
Have A Nice Day.
Friday, November 12, 2010
SWINGER VS SCALPER... PROS & CONS...
Swinger
1. Using bigger time frame, normally 4 hours, Daily and above.
2. Used a lot of technical indicators and confirmation before a good setup is identified, particularly with Moving Averages.
3. Hold position up to weeks or even months on a single trade.
4. Need a lot of patience waiting for the best setup.
5. Normally swinger used bigger stop loss or hedging position in order to protect their position.
6. Swinger goes with bigger profit target with 500 pips and above.
7. Need lesser works compared to scalper.
8. Success rate normally lower but one good swing trade can cover a number of unsuccessful trades.
9. Normally applied by institutional or more experienced traders whom hardly spend time a lot in front of the trading screens.
10. A bit difficult to enter during high volatility period in the market.
11. To get the best entry for a swing trade is the hardest part in which most of my profitable positions turn to be on breakeven even after having a 300+ pips in profit.
Scalper
1. Using smaller time frame, normally 15 minutes and below.
2. Hit and run concept, some even take profit at less than 10 pips per trade.
3. Generates a lot of trade in a day, normally more than 10 trades.
4. High success rates, typically between 70% to 80% if wisely done.
5. Need more works compared to swinger.
6. Chances of making mistakes are significantly high if poor or no money management applied in trading.
7. Tendency to get greedy is normally high with scalping.
8. Significantly dangerous during high volatility.
9. Easily done in a range or trending market movement.
10. Scalpers are on disadvantage side during a market breakout, in which taking a small profit even the opportunity to hit a home run is there.
11. Last but not least, you need to be highly accurate with your entry. When wrong, cut losses immediately by closing that losing position without second thought and stupid hopes. Trust me, blind hopes will only kill your account.
One way or another, there are pros and cons for both type of traders. I couldn't say which is which is better as I personally tried both. Frankly speaking, I prefer to scalp rather than swing as it is not easy to get a good entry for a swing trade.
Scalping is a lot easier especially if you have a strict risk management strategy that will protect you in the long run. All you need is a sound strategy and a good system that gives you the cutting edge in winning trades every now and then.
To me, being a swinger is also ok but perhaps I am more on the scalping side. My own statistics have shown that I made more money with scalping rather than swinging.
But nevertheless, I do believe that either way is ok as long as you know what you are doing. I will swing once in a while with perhaps 1% risk factor (or less) compared to scalping with normally 2% to 3% is at risk.
Bottom line is... just decide which type of trader you are and plan a strategy that you want to apply... then focus on making money and cutting losses. Stick to these rules and success shall prevail.
Have A Nice Weekend.
1. Using bigger time frame, normally 4 hours, Daily and above.
2. Used a lot of technical indicators and confirmation before a good setup is identified, particularly with Moving Averages.
3. Hold position up to weeks or even months on a single trade.
4. Need a lot of patience waiting for the best setup.
5. Normally swinger used bigger stop loss or hedging position in order to protect their position.
6. Swinger goes with bigger profit target with 500 pips and above.
7. Need lesser works compared to scalper.
8. Success rate normally lower but one good swing trade can cover a number of unsuccessful trades.
9. Normally applied by institutional or more experienced traders whom hardly spend time a lot in front of the trading screens.
10. A bit difficult to enter during high volatility period in the market.
11. To get the best entry for a swing trade is the hardest part in which most of my profitable positions turn to be on breakeven even after having a 300+ pips in profit.
Scalper
1. Using smaller time frame, normally 15 minutes and below.
2. Hit and run concept, some even take profit at less than 10 pips per trade.
3. Generates a lot of trade in a day, normally more than 10 trades.
4. High success rates, typically between 70% to 80% if wisely done.
5. Need more works compared to swinger.
6. Chances of making mistakes are significantly high if poor or no money management applied in trading.
7. Tendency to get greedy is normally high with scalping.
8. Significantly dangerous during high volatility.
9. Easily done in a range or trending market movement.
10. Scalpers are on disadvantage side during a market breakout, in which taking a small profit even the opportunity to hit a home run is there.
11. Last but not least, you need to be highly accurate with your entry. When wrong, cut losses immediately by closing that losing position without second thought and stupid hopes. Trust me, blind hopes will only kill your account.
One way or another, there are pros and cons for both type of traders. I couldn't say which is which is better as I personally tried both. Frankly speaking, I prefer to scalp rather than swing as it is not easy to get a good entry for a swing trade.
Scalping is a lot easier especially if you have a strict risk management strategy that will protect you in the long run. All you need is a sound strategy and a good system that gives you the cutting edge in winning trades every now and then.
To me, being a swinger is also ok but perhaps I am more on the scalping side. My own statistics have shown that I made more money with scalping rather than swinging.
But nevertheless, I do believe that either way is ok as long as you know what you are doing. I will swing once in a while with perhaps 1% risk factor (or less) compared to scalping with normally 2% to 3% is at risk.
Bottom line is... just decide which type of trader you are and plan a strategy that you want to apply... then focus on making money and cutting losses. Stick to these rules and success shall prevail.
Have A Nice Weekend.
Wednesday, November 10, 2010
DEAR MY FELLOW FOREX TRADERS...
I may not be that experience (compared to those who've done this for more than 10 years and above) in trading forex but by the end of next Month (December)... it will be my 1095th day, 36 months or 3 years in this arena. I still consider weekend as part of those days as even though I did not trade, most of the time I still used those time to think, study and analyze my trading skills, mistakes and analysis for the following week.
Along these 3 years period, I have a number of students of my own and there are people and friends who believe that I am already doing this exceptionally well and ready to take it on full time.
The fact though, it is not as sweet and easy as my original plan. I did make big profit at times but at the same time, I did encounter big losses as well during these past 3 years. All in all, I am more on the breakeven side rather than significantly profitable.
Though technically I may be a better trader compared to 3 years ago, but financially, I still need a little more time to be on the freedom site, meaning that I still have to be in my day-job office from 8 to 5 weekly. The security to take this on full time is yet to exist though fundamentally I feel ready to take it on full time basis.
Anyway, as usual there are reasons for me to write this article. The points below are those reasons that I would like to reiterate to my fellow traders, especially those who just started.
1. Anything can happen in this market. Don't be overconfident with your analysis. You can't be right/wrong 100% of the time. That's for sure.
2. Don't fight the market. Surely they are stronger than you. If you're wrong, just ESCAPE.
3. Money management is the key to profit and survival. Without it, your account is just like a time-bomb. You only need ONE MISTAKE to burn everything. ONE MISTAKE... that's it.
4. You need a good system that has the cutting edge for you to win trades most of the time. Find it yourself. There are various systems out there. Only one thing to remember, there is no PERFECT system.
5. You need to stick to your trading plan. Self control is the key.
6. You need to be accountable on every trade decision. Don't blame your spouse if you make bad trades.
7. You need to stay out from the market once in a while and enjoy your life by doing something else, especially on the weekend.
8. Invest on knowledge as well as tools for you to trade. Learn, undertsand and respect the market. I don't see people making millions by buying a USD96 system and trading from a single notebook all the time. Proper knowledge and trading station are vital for consistent trade results.
9. You need to make a thorough analysis prior to making your trade decision. You and anyone else could be wrong in one way or another. No one's perfect.
10. Above all... you need to have PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE in order to become a successful trader.
Remember guys, trading is a game that has the odds against you almost all of the time. The brokers are like casinos that make money regardless of whether you make money or not. So be smart when playing this game. Being emotional will only kill you...
Hence, though I do not consider myself as a gambler by trading, I still believe that in order to make money in this market... You have to strive to become the top 10% of traders in the world.
Being ordinary or average is not an option. Like in any game or sports, average players do not make the headlines, fortunes or money in anything that they do. Though it is easy to say that trading is just as simple as clicking the BUY or SELL button on your trading station, the fact is... it is not that easy when it comes to dealing with real money.
Emotion, greed and fear can easily creep into your decision without you even realizing it. So be aware of these trading virus every time you sit in front of your trading screens.
So fellow traders... in short, I just want to say that like all the successful traders out there, you too can be successful but you must have the guts to:
- Learn, Learn and Learn... there is no shortcut...
- Take losses when you're wrong.
- Have strong patience and discipline to stay, survive and prosper in the long run...
Nothing comes easy for sure... but at the same time, nothing is impossible too...
Have A Nice Day!
Along these 3 years period, I have a number of students of my own and there are people and friends who believe that I am already doing this exceptionally well and ready to take it on full time.
The fact though, it is not as sweet and easy as my original plan. I did make big profit at times but at the same time, I did encounter big losses as well during these past 3 years. All in all, I am more on the breakeven side rather than significantly profitable.
Though technically I may be a better trader compared to 3 years ago, but financially, I still need a little more time to be on the freedom site, meaning that I still have to be in my day-job office from 8 to 5 weekly. The security to take this on full time is yet to exist though fundamentally I feel ready to take it on full time basis.
Anyway, as usual there are reasons for me to write this article. The points below are those reasons that I would like to reiterate to my fellow traders, especially those who just started.
1. Anything can happen in this market. Don't be overconfident with your analysis. You can't be right/wrong 100% of the time. That's for sure.
2. Don't fight the market. Surely they are stronger than you. If you're wrong, just ESCAPE.
3. Money management is the key to profit and survival. Without it, your account is just like a time-bomb. You only need ONE MISTAKE to burn everything. ONE MISTAKE... that's it.
4. You need a good system that has the cutting edge for you to win trades most of the time. Find it yourself. There are various systems out there. Only one thing to remember, there is no PERFECT system.
5. You need to stick to your trading plan. Self control is the key.
6. You need to be accountable on every trade decision. Don't blame your spouse if you make bad trades.
7. You need to stay out from the market once in a while and enjoy your life by doing something else, especially on the weekend.
8. Invest on knowledge as well as tools for you to trade. Learn, undertsand and respect the market. I don't see people making millions by buying a USD96 system and trading from a single notebook all the time. Proper knowledge and trading station are vital for consistent trade results.
9. You need to make a thorough analysis prior to making your trade decision. You and anyone else could be wrong in one way or another. No one's perfect.
10. Above all... you need to have PATIENCE and DISCIPLINE in order to become a successful trader.
Remember guys, trading is a game that has the odds against you almost all of the time. The brokers are like casinos that make money regardless of whether you make money or not. So be smart when playing this game. Being emotional will only kill you...
Hence, though I do not consider myself as a gambler by trading, I still believe that in order to make money in this market... You have to strive to become the top 10% of traders in the world.
Being ordinary or average is not an option. Like in any game or sports, average players do not make the headlines, fortunes or money in anything that they do. Though it is easy to say that trading is just as simple as clicking the BUY or SELL button on your trading station, the fact is... it is not that easy when it comes to dealing with real money.
Emotion, greed and fear can easily creep into your decision without you even realizing it. So be aware of these trading virus every time you sit in front of your trading screens.
So fellow traders... in short, I just want to say that like all the successful traders out there, you too can be successful but you must have the guts to:
- Learn, Learn and Learn... there is no shortcut...
- Take losses when you're wrong.
- Have strong patience and discipline to stay, survive and prosper in the long run...
Nothing comes easy for sure... but at the same time, nothing is impossible too...
Have A Nice Day!
Sunday, October 31, 2010
WHAT LIES AHEAD IS ALWAYS A MYSTERY...
Humans are always in puzzle, thinking about the possibilities and the potential outcomes on everything that we commit to do. The ratio between risk versus reward is always a big question before we take any step forward.
If we were too much on risk aversion, chances are we may not make any progress at all by being too afraid to take that first step all the time. But at the same time if our risk appetite is too big, chances are we may unnecessarily open ourselves to potential surprise that could bring disaster to our personal well being.
So which way to choose? Stay aside and play safe all the time? or risk it all in a single decision?
Though playing safe may sound the most conservative option that would protect us in the long run, the fact is you can never run away from risk. In anything that we do, there's always risk involved.
Hence, whenever this question pops up, the answer will always go back to risk management. That is why when someone approach you saying that this or that investment is risk-free, he is definitley lying.
One way or another, there is always risk for sure.
The only important matter that you must consider is...
IF ANYTHING GOES WRONG, HOW BAD WILL IT BE TO ME...???
Hence, regardless of how small or how big your next investment is going to be, always ask this question to yourself... repeatedly.
I had done a few terrible mistakes in the past by not installing this question in my subconscious mind. Hence, when things went terribly wrong, I was always in trouble that requires serious escape plan.
As per written on the topic above, the reason to this is always due to the fact that we humans are always wondering what lies ahead of us in the next 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or even 1 year from now. Something good or bad? We all don't know for sure. We can be optimist and positive, but sometimes being optimist alone is not enough in ensuring the success of our efforts.
Though the keen motivators can always tell you that we all can shape our future and destiny through proper planning and hard works, there are just things that you have to leave to fate and chances especially those that are beyond your control.
So the point is... do what you what you want to do but always focus on risk management rather than thinking too much on the rewards. Dreaming is good for sure but most of the time, you have to wake up from your dreams and face the realities.
Have A Nice Day.
If we were too much on risk aversion, chances are we may not make any progress at all by being too afraid to take that first step all the time. But at the same time if our risk appetite is too big, chances are we may unnecessarily open ourselves to potential surprise that could bring disaster to our personal well being.
So which way to choose? Stay aside and play safe all the time? or risk it all in a single decision?
Though playing safe may sound the most conservative option that would protect us in the long run, the fact is you can never run away from risk. In anything that we do, there's always risk involved.
Hence, whenever this question pops up, the answer will always go back to risk management. That is why when someone approach you saying that this or that investment is risk-free, he is definitley lying.
One way or another, there is always risk for sure.
The only important matter that you must consider is...
IF ANYTHING GOES WRONG, HOW BAD WILL IT BE TO ME...???
Hence, regardless of how small or how big your next investment is going to be, always ask this question to yourself... repeatedly.
I had done a few terrible mistakes in the past by not installing this question in my subconscious mind. Hence, when things went terribly wrong, I was always in trouble that requires serious escape plan.
As per written on the topic above, the reason to this is always due to the fact that we humans are always wondering what lies ahead of us in the next 1 hour, 1 day, 1 week, 1 month or even 1 year from now. Something good or bad? We all don't know for sure. We can be optimist and positive, but sometimes being optimist alone is not enough in ensuring the success of our efforts.
Though the keen motivators can always tell you that we all can shape our future and destiny through proper planning and hard works, there are just things that you have to leave to fate and chances especially those that are beyond your control.
So the point is... do what you what you want to do but always focus on risk management rather than thinking too much on the rewards. Dreaming is good for sure but most of the time, you have to wake up from your dreams and face the realities.
Have A Nice Day.
Monday, September 20, 2010
BOJ HAD FINALLY INTERVENED... WHAT'S NEXT?
Last Wednesday was a big surprised as I almost closed my long position on USD/JPY after it broke the 83.00 level down to 82.87 before the intervention took place that morning.
It wasn't expected as I thought the BOJ would only intervene at the 80.00 level but as we always seen every now and then, anything can happen in the market.
Though technically there is no reason to go long on this pair, fundamentally anything can change the market direction, either briefly or abruptly that could caught anybody unaware.
At the moment, this position is at 160++ pips in profit and I am still considering whether to hold this position or just take the profit and walk away.
You see, this is where fear vs greed will cloud our decision. This is a life example.
At one point, I did feel like a loser when going long at 84.00... in which I was over 100 pips in red when it went below the 83.00 level. The feeling of losing, fear, almost gave up, escape were all there hunting me to click that "close position" button in order to minimize my potential lost.
But then, when the market pops up over 300 pips after the intervention... My psychological state changed instantly from fear to greed (or smart maybe) in which I am start considering the possibility to swing this position to at least 500 or 1000 pips level in a few weeks or months time.
Which one should I do?
If I were to hold and the market reverse, sure I will regret as not to take it when I had the chance. But then, if I exit now and the market cruise for another few hundred pips, I sure too regret it as well as I could have gained more.
Yes of course it's easy to say not to be emotionally attached with your position but in this situation, when real money is on the line, you got to look carefully from all angles and assess the potential risk accordingly.
The best bet would be to break even by putting my stop at my entry price and let it travel to my target price, if the price is ever to reach there.
In this case, I am seeing the big resistance at 94.97 (multiple fibonacci levels) so putting my profit target at 94.00 (1000 pips from my 84.00 entry price) would be reasonable from a single perspective. But considering Elliot Wave, Moving Average as well as RSI and few other indicators, it may be too much for me to target.
Anyway at this point, I will likely to hold rather than exit. I got to try to win big sometimes with zero risk on the line by breaking even this position. Let's see whether this price will ever break the 90's and climb even further to that 94.00 target level in the next few weeks or months probably.
The time limit? I'd probably give it until end of December if I have too...
Have A Nice Day!
It wasn't expected as I thought the BOJ would only intervene at the 80.00 level but as we always seen every now and then, anything can happen in the market.
Though technically there is no reason to go long on this pair, fundamentally anything can change the market direction, either briefly or abruptly that could caught anybody unaware.
At the moment, this position is at 160++ pips in profit and I am still considering whether to hold this position or just take the profit and walk away.
You see, this is where fear vs greed will cloud our decision. This is a life example.
At one point, I did feel like a loser when going long at 84.00... in which I was over 100 pips in red when it went below the 83.00 level. The feeling of losing, fear, almost gave up, escape were all there hunting me to click that "close position" button in order to minimize my potential lost.
But then, when the market pops up over 300 pips after the intervention... My psychological state changed instantly from fear to greed (or smart maybe) in which I am start considering the possibility to swing this position to at least 500 or 1000 pips level in a few weeks or months time.
Which one should I do?
If I were to hold and the market reverse, sure I will regret as not to take it when I had the chance. But then, if I exit now and the market cruise for another few hundred pips, I sure too regret it as well as I could have gained more.
Yes of course it's easy to say not to be emotionally attached with your position but in this situation, when real money is on the line, you got to look carefully from all angles and assess the potential risk accordingly.
The best bet would be to break even by putting my stop at my entry price and let it travel to my target price, if the price is ever to reach there.
In this case, I am seeing the big resistance at 94.97 (multiple fibonacci levels) so putting my profit target at 94.00 (1000 pips from my 84.00 entry price) would be reasonable from a single perspective. But considering Elliot Wave, Moving Average as well as RSI and few other indicators, it may be too much for me to target.
Anyway at this point, I will likely to hold rather than exit. I got to try to win big sometimes with zero risk on the line by breaking even this position. Let's see whether this price will ever break the 90's and climb even further to that 94.00 target level in the next few weeks or months probably.
The time limit? I'd probably give it until end of December if I have too...
Have A Nice Day!
Friday, September 10, 2010
HOW LOW WILL THE USD/JPY GO BEFORE IT CAN REBOUND?
As of this writing, the lowest price for the USD/JPY pair has gone in 15 years is 83.34 (on last 8th September 2010) and the lowest it had been was at 79.75 back in April 1995.
I hate to predict pairs movement but at times good opportunity does not come always. I hardly trade this pair these days but this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to swing this pair for at least 1000 to 2000 pips, who knows?
The problem now however is, is it bottoming already? Will this pair ever break the 80.00 psychological level once again or will that 83.34 be the lowest level for the next 10 or 15 years from now?
Can anyone tell?
Personally, I do believe that the big buyers on this pair are mainly staying at the 80.00 level where this triple zeros will be a very very big support to be broken.
For now, the way I see it is that the pair is waiting for a strong fundamental reason for it to either be further down, or at least make a correction (retracement) to at least to the 90.00 level. The best fundamental move of all if there is ever a serious counter measure or an intervention plan from the Japanese Government particulalrly the BOJ.
Come on BOJ. Do something about it... Yen is too strong for now that would result in expensive imports from Japan and hence less and less people will buy the Japanese product. Perhaps this opinion may sound too naive but that is the core of everything if ever the Japanese Yen maintains its one-sided movement all the way.
I wish I am the Finance Minister of Japan where I could make an announcement that intervention is inevitable in order to protect the Japanese economy. Haha in my dreams for sure...
Anyway...
I am having a long position at 84.00 and still in the doldrums whether to hold or not to hold this position that I entered briefly after the NFP on last Friday.
Judging base on my position, of course I will favor the upward movement. But looking back at the big pictures (ie Weekly and Monthly candlestick), I guess I could be wrong. The pair may have yet to find its bottom yet.
Anyway, I have my stops in place at certain level so most probably I will hold unless the price action and momentum change abruptly hitting certain level that I am comfortable with.
The point now, if you were in my position, do you have the patience to watch and see what will happen next or will you just hold on until you can't take it or when things are back to your favor? Which one is you?
The funny case though, that happens almost every time is that when you escape with minor losses or breakeven, normally the market will be back to your favor if you ever hold that position. But on the other side, as long as you are holding it, you will always feel like you are staying with the losers in which it hardly turn profitable until you start losing your patience and escape.
Is this a coincidence that happen all the time or is it simply psychology that affects you when you have a position in the market?
I still can't find the exact answers but deep inside... I believe I knew the reasons already.
Last but not least... Salam Aidilfitri & Maaf Zahir Batin... Please forgive me for any wrongdoings or saying especially to those who knew me in person...
Take care and drive safely...
I hate to predict pairs movement but at times good opportunity does not come always. I hardly trade this pair these days but this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to swing this pair for at least 1000 to 2000 pips, who knows?
The problem now however is, is it bottoming already? Will this pair ever break the 80.00 psychological level once again or will that 83.34 be the lowest level for the next 10 or 15 years from now?
Can anyone tell?
Personally, I do believe that the big buyers on this pair are mainly staying at the 80.00 level where this triple zeros will be a very very big support to be broken.
For now, the way I see it is that the pair is waiting for a strong fundamental reason for it to either be further down, or at least make a correction (retracement) to at least to the 90.00 level. The best fundamental move of all if there is ever a serious counter measure or an intervention plan from the Japanese Government particulalrly the BOJ.
Come on BOJ. Do something about it... Yen is too strong for now that would result in expensive imports from Japan and hence less and less people will buy the Japanese product. Perhaps this opinion may sound too naive but that is the core of everything if ever the Japanese Yen maintains its one-sided movement all the way.
I wish I am the Finance Minister of Japan where I could make an announcement that intervention is inevitable in order to protect the Japanese economy. Haha in my dreams for sure...
Anyway...
I am having a long position at 84.00 and still in the doldrums whether to hold or not to hold this position that I entered briefly after the NFP on last Friday.
Judging base on my position, of course I will favor the upward movement. But looking back at the big pictures (ie Weekly and Monthly candlestick), I guess I could be wrong. The pair may have yet to find its bottom yet.
Anyway, I have my stops in place at certain level so most probably I will hold unless the price action and momentum change abruptly hitting certain level that I am comfortable with.
The point now, if you were in my position, do you have the patience to watch and see what will happen next or will you just hold on until you can't take it or when things are back to your favor? Which one is you?
The funny case though, that happens almost every time is that when you escape with minor losses or breakeven, normally the market will be back to your favor if you ever hold that position. But on the other side, as long as you are holding it, you will always feel like you are staying with the losers in which it hardly turn profitable until you start losing your patience and escape.
Is this a coincidence that happen all the time or is it simply psychology that affects you when you have a position in the market?
I still can't find the exact answers but deep inside... I believe I knew the reasons already.
Last but not least... Salam Aidilfitri & Maaf Zahir Batin... Please forgive me for any wrongdoings or saying especially to those who knew me in person...
Take care and drive safely...
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