BOJ HAD FINALLY INTERVENED... WHAT'S NEXT?

Last Wednesday was a big surprised as I almost closed my long position on USD/JPY after it broke the 83.00 level down to 82.87 before the intervention took place that morning.

It wasn't expected as I thought the BOJ would only intervene at the 80.00 level but as we always seen every now and then, anything can happen in the market.

Though technically there is no reason to go long on this pair, fundamentally anything can change the market direction, either briefly or abruptly that could caught anybody unaware.

At the moment, this position is at 160++ pips in profit and I am still considering whether to hold this position or just take the profit and walk away.

You see, this is where fear vs greed will cloud our decision. This is a life example.

At one point, I did feel like a loser when going long at 84.00... in which I was over 100 pips in red when it went below the 83.00 level. The feeling of losing, fear, almost gave up, escape were all there hunting me to click that "close position" button in order to minimize my potential lost.

But then, when the market pops up over 300 pips after the intervention... My psychological state changed instantly from fear to greed (or smart maybe) in which I am start considering the possibility to swing this position to at least 500 or 1000 pips level in a few weeks or months time.

Which one should I do?

If I were to hold and the market reverse, sure I will regret as not to take it when I had the chance. But then, if I exit now and the market cruise for another few hundred pips, I sure too regret it as well as I could have gained more.

Yes of course it's easy to say not to be emotionally attached with your position but in this situation, when real money is on the line, you got to look carefully from all angles and assess the potential risk accordingly.

The best bet would be to break even by putting my stop at my entry price and let it travel to my target price, if the price is ever to reach there.

In this case, I am seeing the big resistance at 94.97 (multiple fibonacci levels) so putting my profit target at 94.00 (1000 pips from my 84.00 entry price) would be reasonable from a single perspective. But considering Elliot Wave, Moving Average as well as RSI and few other indicators, it may be too much for me to target.

Anyway at this point, I will likely to hold rather than exit. I got to try to win big sometimes with zero risk on the line by breaking even this position. Let's see whether this price will ever break the 90's and climb even further to that 94.00 target level in the next few weeks or months probably.

The time limit? I'd probably give it until end of December if I have too...

Have A Nice Day!

HOW LOW WILL THE USD/JPY GO BEFORE IT CAN REBOUND?

As of this writing, the lowest price for the USD/JPY pair has gone in 15 years is 83.34 (on last 8th September 2010) and the lowest it had been was at 79.75 back in April 1995.

I hate to predict pairs movement but at times good opportunity does not come always. I hardly trade this pair these days but this could be a once in a lifetime opportunity to swing this pair for at least 1000 to 2000 pips, who knows?

The problem now however is, is it bottoming already? Will this pair ever break the 80.00 psychological level once again or will that 83.34 be the lowest level for the next 10 or 15 years from now?

Can anyone tell?

Personally, I do believe that the big buyers on this pair are mainly staying at the 80.00 level where this triple zeros will be a very very big support to be broken.

For now, the way I see it is that the pair is waiting for a strong fundamental reason for it to either be further down, or at least make a correction (retracement) to at least to the 90.00 level. The best fundamental move of all if there is ever a serious counter measure or an intervention plan from the Japanese Government particulalrly the BOJ.

Come on BOJ. Do something about it... Yen is too strong for now that would result in expensive imports from Japan and hence less and less people will buy the Japanese product. Perhaps this opinion may sound too naive but that is the core of everything if ever the Japanese Yen maintains its one-sided movement all the way.

I wish I am the Finance Minister of Japan where I could make an announcement that intervention is inevitable in order to protect the Japanese economy. Haha in my dreams for sure...

Anyway...

I am having a long position at 84.00 and still in the doldrums whether to hold or not to hold this position that I entered briefly after the NFP on last Friday.

Judging base on my position, of course I will favor the upward movement. But looking back at the big pictures (ie Weekly and Monthly candlestick), I guess I could be wrong. The pair may have yet to find its bottom yet.

Anyway, I have my stops in place at certain level so most probably I will hold unless the price action and momentum change abruptly hitting certain level that I am comfortable with.

The point now, if you were in my position, do you have the patience to watch and see what will happen next or will you just hold on until you can't take it or when things are back to your favor? Which one is you?

The funny case though, that happens almost every time is that when you escape with minor losses or breakeven, normally the market will be back to your favor if you ever hold that position. But on the other side, as long as you are holding it, you will always feel like you are staying with the losers in which it hardly turn profitable until you start losing your patience and escape.

Is this a coincidence that happen all the time or is it simply psychology that affects you when you have a position in the market?

I still can't find the exact answers but deep inside... I believe I knew the reasons already.

Last but not least... Salam Aidilfitri & Maaf Zahir Batin... Please forgive me for any wrongdoings or saying especially to those who knew me in person...

Take care and drive safely...