Friday, October 28, 2016

EDUCATE YOURSELF WITH PROPER KNOWLEDGE & SKILLS


Academics and education are two inseparable things that all of us have to go through in whatever field that we explore. Without doubt, these two elements remain the fundamental towards our judgement, analysis, assessment and evaluation that bring us to certain competency levels and sound decision making skills.

To me, academics is referring to a formal scholarly type of approach whereas education is more on experience that you gained, or self-educate throughout your life. For example, most of us learned about venomous snakes through academics since we either learn from classes, books, national geographic or probably from our parents who had told us during our kindergarten days that snakes are dangerous in general.

But to some, especially to snake lovers and zoo keepers, on top of the training that they need to attend, they probably educate themselves more through their experience dealing with these creatures. Some had even been bitten by these snakes and managed to survive. Some may not. Though their experience is priceless, normal person like you and me probably don't need this kind of experience since the consequence could be catastrophic, unless of course you are interested about the subject matter.

You see with regard to trading, same thing applies here. Most uneducated person would tell you that trading is highly risky, especially with forex. I don't blame them generally since they are not competent in doing this plus, perhaps they had encountered some bad experience in the past that told them to stay away from this at all cost.

That is why I always emphasize that you must always educate and arm yourself with proper knowledge and skills if you are serious about it since it is not a get-rich-quick scheme kind of thing. Trading is a legit business and at par with any kind of investment and financial instrument out there. But before you embark further, you need to prepare yourself with at least some basic understanding so that you know how things work and what you are doing out there.

Have you ever heard a pilot that never attend a pilot school? Never right? Even a crop dusting pilot needs to be certified or trained by his experience father, to say the least.

In my case, though my academic background and qualification is in electrical engineering, On top of some training (i.e. Academics) that I had attended earlier, I always educate myself on daily basis (for the past 9 years) about this trading stuff to a level that at some points, I became paralyze with so much information (and experience) to digest. Losing money seems to be the best lesson of all since it stocked in my head forever. But what the heck, this is where my passion is so I have no regret.

The reasons I highlight this point again and again are simple.

1. So many look at trading forex as a get-rich-quick method. They refuse to learn. Some even have no clue at what support and resistance are. All they knew is just buy at bottom and sell at the top. They used a shorter time frame and miss the big picture. To some extent, they even have the gut to argue that their positions are perfect even when the market trend is showing the other way round. Well, perhaps experience will teach them better.

2. Some gurus are giving their students wrong impression about trading that learning is not really necessary. They told their students that trading does not have to be that difficult without disclosing all the truth and pains that they had endured throughout the years before they come to that level. They named their trading method under certain techniques, just open multiple small positions (i.e. short and long) and close it accordingly when it turns blue or hit the TP level with no stop loss or risk mitigation if things not in their favor. This is easy for sideways pattern (i.e. mainly EUR/USD) but during imminent breakouts, your floating positions could be trapped for months. Ok for big accounts but small accounts will surely get the margin call.

3. Some rely too much on third party signals. I had subscribed to a premium signal provider before for a USD200 per month that promise me 80% accuracy. The fact is otherwise since the signals provided are no better than my own simple setup signal generator. At times, it even clashed with my own signals and you knew what, my signals turn out to be the correct one and I was making these guys 200 dollar richer every month. I stopped my subscription only after 2 months of unsuccessful trading using their signals.

4. The most ignored element is prudent risk management. Most knew that you should not risk more than 2% (or whatever amount that you are comfortable with) but many are left clueless on how to translate this into their trading positions. Again, it is either their trainer fail to teach such thing or the student himself tend to ignore this core element of trading. Without knowing the risk that you are taking out there with your real money, you are just as good as a gambler could be. Definitely not a trader.

With all the points highlighted above, the most fundamental part of all is to accept the fact that the forex market is like a North Pacific Ocean. Your presence is negligible. Nobody knows for certain what's down there. Big fishes, small fishes, sharks, whales and even icebergs. You name it. Before you go sailing and try to make some catch, you need to have some basic sea survival skills, just to make it back to the shore alive in case if you don't make any catch at all.

Weather is another thing that you need to read accordingly (i.e. market's condition). There are times when you can go out and there are times when you should stay on the shore. How far and how big you can catch is also subject to your boat size (i.e. Account). When brokers are giving you big leverage (i.e.1:1000), it is a bait as such telling you that you can make a big catch even with a small boat. Yes you can but chances you may not survive even when a small wave hit your boat.


All in all, don't get me wrong. My interest is always into developing you, my students and aspiring new traders into an independent trader as I am. It is a process that you cannot skip. Further to that, bear in mind that making and losing money is just part of the process but you don't have to lose big money before you can become good at this. All you need is patience and discipline.

Again, I just want to emphasize that you need some trading education and effort to be successful. One of the best way is to learn from the experience of others. If you wish to pay, fine. There are just too many gurus who are more than happy to teach you. But if you want to get it for free, extra effort is required in obtaining these knowledge and skills throughout your own experience. Though it is worth it, it could be extremely painful sometimes.

It's your choice but educating yourself is a MUST by all means, be it the hard way (i.e. read, make mistakes, explore) or the easy way (i.e. pay, listen and do).



Have A Nice Weekend!

Monday, October 24, 2016

PROTECT YOURSELF FROM SCAMMERS

Dear friends, fellow readers & traders,



Please protect yourself. As long as your money is still in your account, you are safe. Once it is transferred out, just hope for the best. But before you do, please do some due diligence by trying to check who you are dealing with, how much you are paying, ask few questions and see how they respond. Have someone at your side to advise you at the same time and always consider the worst case scenarios.

Scammers can come in many ways and faces, disguising and luring you into believing that they can change your fortune and life style within a very short period of time. The fact is, these people just want your money. Nothing else. They are not interested in helping you and they will promise you the sun and the moon until you made the deposit.

During the early 2000’s era, which was 16 years ago, there were so many online surf-for-money programs that required you to put some investment, surf and then earn daily percentage as you surf their clients website. One of the best was Studio Traffic (and 12DailyPro). Every member knew the owner was John Horan, but no one has ever met this guy, or knew his face for certain. Yeah it was paying for the first 3 years which was awesome, but as members are getting larger and reaching millions, it finally gone by early 2006 and claiming that they have been sabotaged, though in fact it was just a master Ponzi scheme that were well planned and orchestrated. Pity especially to those who joined in the final months before it collapsed. To those who had hit and ran earlier, they made some decent fortune indeed. How do I know? Well, your logic will tell you the answer.

We all learned from mistakes for sure, but even worse some never learn at all. Fool me once, shame on you but fool me twice, shame on me. This is very true. And if you have never been scammed before, consider yourself among the luckiest person in the world. Don’t worry about not making that extra money that you wish for, just be thankful that you manage not to lose whatever you have in your wallet and account right now.

Now let’s get back to forex trading. I believed the trading itself is already risky with market’s volume (i.e. over USD 5 Trillion daily) and volatility at its best.

Firstly, for those of you who is not a risk taker and not having a strong heart inside, I strongly recommend that you stay away from this forex trading arena. Seriously it is not for you.

Secondly, if you are highly emotional, driven by fear and greed at every second of your life, this is also not for you. 

But, if you believe you can control yourself over proper education and training, then you have better chance of making some fortune from this, though it may require a little bit more than that. But never mind.

So what is my point? Simple. Trading itself is already a big heartache and headache for most of us. If you deposit your money into a legit broker and later lose it because of trading, at least you can learn from it and take it as tuition fees (from those losses).

But if you put these money on someone or some agents that claimed he can generate 500% profit in 3 days, I just wish you all the best. Yeah of course it is possible to make such profit with forex, but chances are you will not see these money again. Some scammers just gone with the wind after they collect all these money from their so called investors. In Malaysia, the latest scammers involved 2 school teachers, husband and wife from Johor and Sabah reported to collect deposit over RM500k and just missing after that. This kind of thing really pissed me personally.  

Losing money in this manner, to me is much more pathetic then losing from a stupid trade initiated by yourself. Period.

The worse part, these people could probably be your close friends, contacts and even your relatives who managed to convince you to invest in them. Even if they really trade for you, be careful as it is not easy to obtain the on-paper simulated profit target. Easy said than done for sure. Ask those who ever traded others account and they knew that I am not lying.

You see all these goes back to the facts that human can never run away from the fear and greed factor within them. To those who can tame these beasts from within, well done! You must be one of the best trader out there.

But for most of us who don’t even realize that they are controlled by these two elements, chances they may be scammed if the deal sounds too good to resist. Their desire to become rich will overwrite their logic thinking until Mr Regret comes and knock on their account.   

This is why proper education is priceless in the long run. If you want to venture forex trading, be a real trader guys and girls, learn from the others’ experience and minimize the chances of making mistakes with your money. Focus on tackling these first, then you can sail smoothly towards your dream of making a fortune with something that you are passionate about.

It is not that hard after all.

I am just painting a true picture so that no one will ever call me a liar.

Oh yeah, by the way, am I a scammer? Well, you can sms/whatsapp or even call me and have ‘Teh Tarik’ with me if you want. I was told by a broker to stop doing free and charity job for this trading thingy so I would be more than happy to meet you.

Don’t worry, even if I scam you, you know where to find me LOL.

Have a nice week ahead!  


Saturday, October 15, 2016

WHERE WILL THE STERLING GOES FROM HERE?

Since 24th June 2016, the cable has been heading south for over 3000 pips at all crosses, particularly for GBP/USD and GBP/JPY. It was earlier thought that 1.2795 would hold for quite sometimes but by 1st week of October, it was broken to as low as 1.1300 at some brokers platform due to the flash crash on 7th October 2016. As far as my broker is concern, the lowest recorded so far was at 1.2025 per US Dollar. Well, still it was a flash crash anyway.



If you read the news, analyst views as well as general sentiment from the price movement, it seems that it will probably go further south with some analysts predicting that it may even reach as low as 97 pence per dollar by end of this year. Wow, that would be 0.9700 then.

Is this possible? Definitely yes. The bottom has yet to be seen. With the current UK interest rate, Fed Reserve rate hike potential in December, US Presidential election to be ended by 8th November, no sign of soft brexit, no potential intervention to be taken by the BOE as well as other central banks to curb this fall out, it seems anything is possible in my honest view. At least that is what on the plate at this moment. We can assume that something may happen soon enough to support back the sterling, but that is more on assumption rather than reality.

The market is showing fear and the chart is showing that the bears are in full control with minor bull retracement these past 2 days. No serious sign of reversal just yet. I guess the British government probably don't care or this is perhaps something that has been orchestrated in order to boost the export for the UK. Definitely a cheaper pound is good for the exporters as well as for the tourism industry, but one way or another will have some adverse effect on the UK economy in general. I don't think I need further deliberation on this since it is written all over the news anyway.

As a currency trader, all we care is where it is heading in the coming weeks and months. Could the flash crash lows be a temporary bottom for now, or it probably go deeper into the sub 1.2000 territory? No one can really tell even the central banks. As far as my trading is concern, there is only one advise that seems to be applicable at this point of time - Proceed with Caution.

You can either stay with the bears or prepare to join the bull. Either way, you must always be prudent with your approach since there is no hard and fast rules here that can guarantee you certainties in any angle. I personally would like to swing the cable but the problem is, I have yet to see any strong signal that the sterling had hit the bottom.

Yes, anyone can put their guess and verdict, but the reality everything is at your own risk. Recalling what happened last week, as well as what happened to the EUR/USD back in 2008 when everyone was trying to pick its top (finally topped at 1.6038 on July 2008), it would have been crazy to do such thing. There is no need to do that after all.

Hence, for now I would just stick with the bandit strategy by scalping the market whenever possible. Looks like chicken but better than nothing though. At the same time, staying out would be the best option since market normally slows down towards the end of the year, even though still tradable.

Anyhow, after analyzing the monthly as well as the weekly chart closely, I would say that based on the RSI, Price Action and Fibo levels, sterling bulls may push it back to the north to as high as 1.2900 within these coming weeks, before the bears return and attack again. The bears probably tired after weeks of vicious attack and quite likely to take a break for a while.

Well, that is just my prediction without being biased to any position. Unless Theresa May says anything on the Hard Brexit again, the bulls will probably return and proceed with caution in giving the pound some glimmer of hope before end of this month. Otherwise, prepare for another fall out below the 1.2000 level. Pity the sterling but that is just my 2 cents.

Have A Nice Weekend!




Monday, October 10, 2016

WHAT CAN WE LEARN FROM THE STERLING FLASH CRASH?

I would call it a black Friday for the pound sterling since I personally suffered some significant losses due to this 'flash crash' on 7th October 2016, exactly at 7am local time here seconds after the Tokyo Opened. Painful indeed but this is a fact that traders have to face from time to time. Just need to analyse and move on accordingly.



While the magnitude of the spike was not as much as the one occurred during the BREXIT vote counting day in June, but the manner it crashed in less than 5 minutes, with various brokers giving various lows was something that I believed had caught most traders shocked and unaware. Some blamed this was due to thin liquidity, the auto trading algorithm errors, as well as others are pointing to the 'fat finger' tradings. You can read on this at most other websites so no deliberation is required here. Bloomberg is my favorite by the way.

Though GBP had been stumbling since weeks before, and keep on heading south for the rest of the 1st week of October, no one would have thought that it could go even lower than 1.2600 on that Friday alone.

Personally, I was speculating that the market would take it easy for the day since normally, prior to NFP released, market would technically correct itself with some profit taking and some significant retracement should be seen. Yes all of us knew the bearish trend for sure, but as experience had taught us all, it sure cannot go south all the way since technical correction was believed to be inevitable.

Further to that, with SSI extremely rated at 90% long against 10% short, RSI at severely oversold condition at almost all time frame (e.g. -20 at H4 timeframe), price at the lowest level since 1985, it was widely expected that the spike would have been in the bulls favor (at least) instead of the bears.

But early Friday morning, the seems impossible thing happened when market spiked down to over 1000 pips on certain brokers chart within 15 minutes after the Tokyo opened. My stops was severely hit (100 pips below than my setting, meaning 200 pips instead of 100) and I was left in the dark on what could have happened that brought to such a flash disaster. Yes, it was like tsunami indeed.

You see, this is in fact a very good example that anything can happen in the market. If there is no risk control for such an extreme event, anyone could have been wiped out from the market especially if you are holding a big position relative to your account size.

Nevertheless the night before, somehow there was a funny feeling that told me that this could happen. All the technical indicators were showing strong bearish conditions, no doubt. But the internal psychology had failed me by keep on pouring fear and culprit believe that the market was about to reverse, at least temporarily and that was the key reason on why I was going long for the GBP/USD, trying to pick bottom in which to me, was technically justified.

But see for yourself, no one is protected here. Perhaps it is a good lesson to me as well as the rest of market's participants.

In summary:

1. Know what you are doing, especially the risks involved.
2. Picking bottom is highly risky, regardless what the technical probability was showing.
3. RISK Management is everything. You decide your risk tolerance upfront and get ready to be wrong.
4. Once the previous support broken (i.e. 1.2795), the market can be bottomless for quite sometimes until it finds a new bottom or support.
5. Sentiment can overrule technical, as well as technical can overrule sentiment. In this case, the fear of "HARD BREXIT" sentiment (or whatever the market wants to call it) seems to make its point very clear on how useless the technical indicators could be and how vulnerable sterling is in the coming months.
6. On this case, the FEAR factor is really showing its dominance, driving the sterling to 'yet-to-be-seen' bottom in my honest opinion.
7. It is not easy not to get fully unemotional when you were caught in such situation. Lost is a lost and you just have to accept it. And yes, learn from it as well.

Have a Nice Week Ahead!


Sunday, October 2, 2016

THE EASY WAY TO TRADE FOREX

Gotcha! I knew most would be interested in this topic. If you are not one of them, then you can close this page straight away. Go ahead, no hard feeling for sure.



Still here? Then you must be serious about this. So please stay and read.

Definitely there are both options for you to choose, the hard way vs the easy way. But bear in mind that either way, there are always risk involved. So let me share both options here for you to consider.

THE HARD WAY
1. Study the basics and fundamentals of trading.
2. Attend classrooms, training and seminars.
3. Put extra effort in reading the charts and analyzing the market every day and week.
4. Sleep less due to over commitment to trading and watching the chart, especially when you are new.
5. Read every single books and articles that you can find about trading.
6. Develop your own system and method of trading through trial and errors.
7. Experience losing your hard earned money and strive to improve your trading skills every day.
8. Start with small accounts and put a mission to grow it gradually.
9. Learn, learn and learn.

THE EASY WAY
1. Put your money on somebody you trust to trade, make a deal on the profit sharing arrangement.
2. Use and rely fully on EA's (Expert Advisor) and Robots.
3. Subscribe to any signal provider and just follow.
4. Open multiple small positions and pairs. See what happen and close the one in blue and leave the one in red until it becomes blue, or until your account get the Margin Call. Huhu.
5. Only trade with the extra money that you are willing to lose. Not the one that you obtained from a personal loan or your hard earned savings. I mean you really don't mind losing these money.
6. Gamble. Deposit into your real account, take maximum leverage and go gung-ho with your trading with all-or-nothing attitude. Seriously you may get rich quicker if you manage to get it right every time. Do this if you think risk is just a playground to you.

Enough? Maybe not. You see the point here is that you have options in your hand. You just have to choose which one. If you opt for the easy way, chances of turning yourself into a real trader is very much less compared to the hard way.

In my honest opinion, it is all about process. In order for you to become good at something, it takes effort and hard works. When you hear or see someone saying that it doesn't have to be hard or painstaking, most of the time these people are trying to sell you something. Normally, the reality is a total inverse to what they said.

I don't mean to scare you or distance you away from this trading arena. No, that is not my intention. I just want to highlight that you need to put efforts, patience, discipline and time for you to really develop yourself into something at anything that you do. There is no shortcuts.

Once you make progress from one level to another, then the sense of ease will come automatically. Ask a degree students who are pursuing their masters as well as masters students who are pursuing their PhD's. Chances you will get the same answers on their difficulties. But if you reverse the situation, PhD students would say that pursuing their master was not that difficult as well as masters students would say about their degrees.

But during the process of pursuing it, of course they have to face many challenges and obstacles that stood along the way. Only after overcoming them, or learn on how to overcome them, they would feel that things are actually not that difficult as they first thought it was.

So back to trading forex, yes there are easy ways for you to trade the market. You don't need to use all the indicators available as well as studying the fundamental of each pair to the level that you have to know the birthday of the Japanese Prime Minister. Definitely it is not necessary. But for you to come to that level, you just need to past through certain processes that will turn your maturity from a beginner, amateur, professional to a master trader who can later share his knowledge and experiences to develop new traders in the market.

Even after 9 years of doing this, personally I still feel that there is always something new to learn and experience from the market on daily basis. It is endless indeed. But thank god, the knowledge and experience gained are beyond satisfactory level and the process that I had gone through seems to be priceless. Perhaps it is high time to share this with other aspiring traders like you.

On the same note, please guard yourself from scammers. There are just too many out there. If you are not careful, you will probably be their next prey. So please be careful.